Sharp changes could result in a cascade of subsystem interactions that would steer the planet toward extreme warming and sea level rise.
Scientists say multiple critical Earth systems appear closer to destabilisation than previously believed.
This is putting the planet in increased danger of following a “hothouse” path driven by feedback loops that can amplify the consequences of global warming.
The findings from the international collaboration led by Oregon State University’s William Ripple were published today in the journal One Earth.
‘We could be entering a period of unprecedented climate change’
‘The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory’ report brings together scientific findings on climate feedback loops and 16 tipping elements – Earth subsystems that may become unstable if critical temperature thresholds are passed.
Those sharp changes could likely result in a cascade of subsystem interactions that would steer the planet toward a path of extreme warming and sea level rise.
These conditions could be difficult to reverse on human timescales, even with deep emissions cuts, the study warns.
“After a million years of oscillating between ice ages separated by warmer periods, the Earth’s climate stabilised more than 11,000 years ago, enabling agriculture and complex societies,” says Ripple, distinguished professor of ecology in the OSU College of Forestry.
“We’re now moving away from that stability and could be entering a period of unprecedented climate change.”
‘Climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted’
Tipping elements include ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, mountain glaciers, sea ice, boreal forests and permafrost, the Amazon rainforest, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC, a system of ocean currents that’s a key influencer of global climate.
The researchers note that nearly 10 years after the Paris Agreement, which sought to limit long-term average warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, global temperature increases exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for 12 consecutive months.
That period also included extreme, deadly and costly wildfires, floods and other climate-related natural disasters.
“Temperature limit exceedance is usually evaluated using 20-year averages, but climate model simulations suggest the recent 12-month breach indicates the long-term average temperature increase is at or near 1.5 degrees,” says study co-author Christopher Wolf, a scientist with Corvallis-based Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates (TERA).
“It’s likely that global temperatures are as warm as, or warmer than, at any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted.”
It’s also likely that carbon dioxide levels are the highest they’ve been in at least 2 million years, the scientists say. At more than 420 parts per million, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 50 per cent higher than it was prior to the Industrial Revolution.
The danger of climate feedback loops
When the climate changes, the researchers note, responses can be triggered that circle back to affect the climate itself, amplifying or dampening the original change. These processes are known as climate feedback loops.
“Amplifying feedbacks increase the risks of accelerated warming,” Ripple says. “For example, melting ice and snow, permafrost thaw, forest dieback and soil-carbon loss can all magnify warming – and in turn affect the climate system’s sensitivity to greenhouse gases.”
Ripple, Wolf and their collaborators – Wolf’s TERA colleague Jillian Gregg and top climate scientists in Germany, Denmark and Austria – say current data coupled with the inherent uncertainties of climate forecasting should be taken as a signal that urgent climate mitigation and adaptation strategies are needed.
“Existing climate mitigation approaches, including scaling up renewable energy and protecting carbon-storing ecosystems, are critical to limit the increase in global temperatures,” says Ripple.
Strategies that embed climate resilience into governmental policy frameworks should be a priority as well, the authors say, along with a socially-just phaseout of fossil fuels.
The scientists also discuss the need for novel approaches, including coordinated global tipping-point monitoring and better plans for managing risk.
“Uncertain tipping thresholds underscore the importance of precaution – crossing even some of those thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with long-lasting and possibly irreversible consequences,” Wolf says.
“Policymakers and the public remain largely unaware of the risks posed by what would effectively be a point-of-no-return transition. And while averting the hothouse trajectory won’t be easy, it’s much more achievable than trying to backtrack once we’re on it.”
‘We need to act quickly on our rapidly dwindling opportunities’
Tipping may already be happening with the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the scientists say, and boreal permafrost, mountain glaciers and the Amazon rainforest appear on the verge of tipping.
In the Earth’s tightly coupled climate system, destabilisation in one region can reverberate across oceans and continents as melting ice accelerates warming by reducing albedo and altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, resulting in changes to tropical rain belts.
For example, as the Greenland ice sheet melts, it could further weaken the AMOC, which in turn could trigger parts of the Amazon to tip from rainforest to savanna.
“The AMOC is already showing signs of weakening, and this could increase the risk of Amazon dieback, with major negative impacts on carbon storage and biodiversity,” Ripple says.
“Carbon released by an Amazon dieback would further amplify global warming and interact with other feedback loops. We need to act quickly on our rapidly dwindling opportunities to prevent dangerous and unmanageable climate outcomes.”
