From rising sea levels to food systems fuelling climate change – experts have laid out 10 insights that require urgent action.
Past emissions have already “locked in” future climate impacts – but the scale of this damage still depends on what action we take right now, according to a major new study.
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The 10 New Insights In Climate Science report is produced by more than 70 scientists from nearly 30 countries and aims to translate complex research into accessible, concise insights to “inform high-stakes decisions”.
Published today (6 October) it warns that the overshooting of 1.5°C, as set out in the legally binding Paris Agreement, carries “rapidly escalating risks of irreversible impacts” for our oceans, glaciers and permafrost – and that the economic and social costs of doing so are greater than previously understood.
10 insights to prevent further climate damage
“The evidence is unequivocal," says Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research, co-chair of The Earth League and a member of the report’s editorial board.
“1.5°C is a limit that we cross at our own risk. Beyond it, the risks of cascading and potentially irreversible climate impacts increase, with every additional tenth of a degree making them more severe.”
The 10 New Insights highlights, created by Future Earth, The Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme, point to a “narrowing window for action” but one that is still open, showing us what is already locked in, what can still be avoided, and where policy can have the greatest effect.
Ocean heat uptake clouds long-term outlook
The ocean continues to absorb record amounts of heat due to human-caused climate change – locking in further warming for years to come.
In August, global sea surface temperatures reached 21.1°C – the hottest ever recorded. Experts warned last year that the planet’s ocean acidification - where the water’s pH is lowered due to CO₂ absorption - entered the danger zone for the first time.
The new report says deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are “urgently needed” to prevent further long-term heat accumulation.
“The ocean has been our planet’s shock absorber,” says Wendy Broadgate, Global Hub Director at Future Earth and a member of the report’s editorial board.
“Because heat takes decades to penetrate ocean depths, today's emissions effectively lock in further warming and sea level rise. Deep, rapid emissions cuts are the only way to limit these risks.”
Sea levels keep rising
Melting glaciers and ice sheets are driving rising seas, putting more people at risk of severe flooding.
The report warns that some sea-level rise is already irreversible due to the impact of past emissions, but the magnitude of this still depends on how quickly the world acts to cut greenhouse gases.
Freshwater sources are getting scarce
Water gaps are widening as continental drying – the long-term, large-scale decline in freshwater availability and water storage – accelerates. According to the UN, By 2030, one-in-two people are expected to face severe water shortages.
“Climate change and growing water use are causing the rapid loss of freshwater across continents, threatening water security, ecosystems, and food production,” the report says.
“The consequences of inaction extend from threats to local livelihoods to cascading impacts across the Earth system.”
Governments are being encouraged to develop holistic water management plans, known as Integrated Water Resource Management, that take into account the entire water cycle: from source to distribution, treatment, reuse and return to the environment.
Nature-based solutions such as restoring wetlands, rivers and forests can also help capture fresh water that remains on land, rather than letting it dry up or run straight into the ocean.
Impacts of overshooting 1.5C
A recent report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, likely within the next few years. This would accelerate much of the environmental degradation the natural world is already experiencing, from shrinking ice sheets to rising sea levels and “unprecedented dieback” of coral reefs and rainforests.
The UNEP says that there are “no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C” and that governments must focus on making the overshoot as small and short as possible.
Food systems still fuel climate change
The report says that transforming food systems, particularly through more plant-rich diets, can deliver major benefits for climate, biodiversity and health, but they must be done “carefully and fairly”.
Globally, food and agriculture contribute one-third of total greenhouse gas emissions, second only to burning fossil fuels – and meat has been identified as the main culprit.
In fact, animal-sourced foods make up between 81 and 86 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions from EU food production, despite only supplying an estimated 32 per cent of calories and 64 per cent of protein.
According to the carbon footprint calculator CO2 Everything, one 100g serving of beef is equivalent to 78.7 km of driving, releasing 15.5 kg CO2 equivalent.
Understanding the ‘social cost’ of carbon
Experts warn that the economic damages caused by carbon emissions are "substantially higher” than previously estimated – adding that every extra tonne of CO2 carries “additional risk”.
“Using more realistic, up-to-date climate models reveal a social cost of carbon up to four times higher,” the report says.
Strengthening claims for compensation
Advances in science have made it possible to trace climate impacts back to the emissions that caused them.
That means scientists can now link a single company or major emitter to warming – and perhaps even to specific losses or damages.
Moving forward, this extra evidence could strengthen climate litigation and demands for compensation.
‘Climate clubs’ can help industries clean up their act
‘Climate clubs’ made up of countries working together on climate and trade policies can create a collective force to cut down on carbon emissions.
These so-called clubs can rally behind carbon border taxes that prevent companies from off-shoring to places with weaker climate policies, for example – a problem known as ‘carbon leakage’.
But there’s a caveat. While climate clubs can accelerate industrial decarbonisation, they can also have a punitive effect on developing countries that lack the tools, money or technology to cut emissions.
That’s why the authors suggest that wealthier nations may need to combine tougher rules with technical or financial support for other economies.
Climate obstruction is getting harder to spot
Progress is being derailed by more than just denialism.
The report says that carbon-heavy industries are holding back effective policy not just by denying climate change exists anymore. Lobbying efforts now also include a bevy of subtler tactics, from greenwashing to the digital spread of disinformation.
To combat this more deceptive form of climate obfuscation, the report calls for greater transparency in lobbying and political donations, stronger rules against making misleading environmental claims and coordinated action against disinformation.
Conflict creates unequal energy transitions
Wars, trade disputes and fierce competition over energy sources are complicating the global push to decarbonise.
Energy security concerns, like those caused by the war on Iran and the war in Ukraine, have not been met with one universal response. While many wealthy countries have invested in renewables as a buffer against shocks in the oil and gas markets, others have doubled down on fossil fuel production or sought new sources overseas.
The report explains that global instability could make the energy transition more unequal than it already is.
Some blocs of nations could wall off neutral or politically unstable nations, ultimately slowing the global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. And since more often than not, the most vulnerable suffer from price spikes, the authors add that there is valid reason to be concerned about climate justice in the future.
