Fears of a ‘coal comeback’ triggered by the Iran war energy crisis are not supported by the data.
A predicted ‘coal comeback’ due to the Iran war energy crisis has not materialised, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
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Analysing countries that disclose near-real-time electricity data, CREA found that coal-fired generation was flat in March globally, falling by 3.5 per cent outside of China, where it rose by a modest two per cent as some plants switched from gas to coal.
Seaborne coal transport volumes, meanwhile, fell by three per cent globally, bringing them to their lowest level since 2021, the height of the Covid pandemic.
Total fossil fuel power generation fell by one per cent compared with the previous year, with gas-fired generation falling by four per cent.
The analysis covers the world’s largest power markets – China, the US, the EU and India, among others – which account for around 87 per cent of global coal power and more than 60 per cent of gas-fired power generation.
Renewables are helping to buffer the energy crisis
This happened despite a major global energy crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
The blockade of the key oil and gas shipping route has disrupted fuel supplies and sent prices skyrocketing. Renewables have played a significant role in cushioning the impact – with solar alone saving Europe €3 billion in March.
Solar power generation rose by around 14 per cent last month, while wind energy was up approximately eight per cent in the countries analysed.
Prior to its closure, the Strait of Hormuz was used for almost a fifth of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) transports, which CREA estimates is enough to produce power equivalent to France's annual electricity generation.
But the solar and wind power capacity added globally in 2025 alone is enough to offset this twice over, according to CREA.
Why hasn’t there been a ‘coal comeback’?
Similar predictions of a ‘coal comeback’ arose after Russian gas exports to Europe fell following the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
These bore out initially but the long-term outcome of the crisis was a sharp acceleration in clean energy and a record fall in Europe’s coal use and CO2 emissions in 2023, CREA says.
Following the Hormuz effective closure, coal-fired power generation fell most sharply in the US, India, the EU, Türkiye and South Africa in March, according to CREA. This is largely because coal was cheaper to run than gas even before the crisis, meaning remaining plants were already heavily utilised, leaving little room to ramp up further.
While some nations have announced plans to reopen, delay the closure of, or increase the use of coal-fired power plants in response to the energy supply crisis, the gradual phaseout of coal plants in many countries means they would struggle to increase production quickly. In fact, no coal plants were returned to service or had their closure delayed in any country in March, according to CREA.
The economic case for investing in coal is only weakening as the energy crisis pushes up transport costs, making it more expensive than generating and storing renewable energy, CREA argues.
Europe is already taking heed, with France and the United Kingdom among the countries accelerating electrification, heat pumps and solar to cut reliance on imported fuels. Similar moves worldwide signal that energy security is increasingly tied to renewables rather than fossil fuels.
Recognising this, governments will meet on 24-29 April to discuss how to transition away from fossil fuelsat the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia.
