Renewed protests in Iran reflect economic collapse and political frustration, with fatalities, mass arrests, and communication blackouts, raising international concerns.
The Islamic Republic regime in Tehran has been weakened by its inability to defend against Israeli and US airstrikes, emboldening protesters now facing violent repression across the country, according to a former senior UN refugee official.
"The Ayatollah (Ali Khamenei) regime is now considered weaker after showing that it was unable to defend itself from Israeli and American airstrikes in June 2025," said Guido Ambroso, former UNHCR representative in Azerbaijan.
Protests have spread across several Iranian cities in recent weeks amid reports of fatalities, mass arrests and communication blackouts.
The demonstrations reflect years of inflation, currency depreciation and rising unemployment that have eroded living standards and widened discontent beyond traditionally marginalised groups.
Economic pressure meets political frustration
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has urged Iranian authorities to halt violence against peaceful demonstrators and respect fundamental rights. Human rights organisations have reported thousands of casualties among protesters, arbitrary detentions and house-to-house arrests.
Ambroso said the unrest reflects a convergence of economic collapse and political frustration, with declining purchasing power affecting broad segments of society, including those who historically supported the authorities.
"There remains a highly educated and globally connected segment of society that feels increasingly excluded from decision-making and public life," he said.
According to Ambroso, restrictions on political participation, cultural expression and civil liberties have fuelled anger particularly among urban youth and professionals.
While the crisis was initially "self-fuelling," with violent repression triggering further demonstrations, it has now "to some extent run out of steam in the face of continuing repression and lack of meaningful external aid," Ambroso said.
He warned against assuming the regime's imminent collapse, noting that Iran's strong institutional traditions may allow authorities to withstand pressure longer than those of other regional governments.
"Should it lead to a downfall of the regime, which is not at all guaranteed, the consequences will be profound for all of the neighbouring countries including Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Armenia, as well as parts of Central Asia and the Gulf," he said.
A shift in the region
Trade disruptions and heightened security measures have been reported, with some border crossings affected. Turkey has seen a limited increase in arrivals, though officials note these include foreign nationals and diplomatic families as well as Iranians.
Ambroso praised Turkey for keeping its borders open, while already hosting millions of Syrian refugees who are only now beginning to return following the downfall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in late 2024.
He warned that a sharper escalation could trigger wider displacement, with Iraq's Kurdish region, Tajikistan and Afghanistan potentially affected due to ethnic and linguistic ties.
UN and humanitarian agencies have warned that their capacity to respond is limited, as global aid resources remain strained following recent funding cuts.
Ambroso outlined two scenarios for Iran's future. In one, authorities contain the unrest through repression and limited concessions, restoring stability while emerging weakened domestically and internationally.
The second, less likely outcome involves a political transition towards a more open system, which would alter regional geopolitics and complicate relations with key partners Russia and China.
"What is also important is that should the situation deteriorate further because of repression or conflict, countries should keep their borders open and provide protection to those fleeing persecution," Ambroso said.
He noted Iran opened its borders to over one million Iraqi-Kurdish refugees in April 1991 and currently hosts more than 700,000 Afghan refugees.
"Now it is time to show generosity towards Iranians seeking international protection," he said. "I am convinced that most Iranian refugees would repatriate as soon as there is a return to at least some level of freedom and democracy."