The Bertelsmann Stiftung's new transformation index says that the world is becoming increasingly autocratic and existing autocracies are becoming more entrenched. One of the few counter-examples: Germany's neighbour Poland. What is being done differently here.
Democracies under pressure: more and more countries are sliding into authoritarian systems of government and democratic systems are on the defensive, according to the latest Bertelsmann Stiftung Transformation Index (BTI). Today, 56 percent of the 137 countries surveyed are governed autocratically.
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According to the study, 77 of the countries examined are ruled autocratically, and almost two-thirds of these are classified as hardline autocracies. In these states, fundamental rights are completely disregarded, the authors of the Bertelsmann study note. It is a record high since data collection began in 2006.
"The BTI once again shows just how much democratic institutions worldwide are coming under pressure – at the same time, in many places we see a remarkably vibrant resistance to their erosion," says Daniela Schwarzer, board member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung. "This capacity for mobilisation, which stems above all from an active civil society, holds crucial potential for democratic renewal."
But the report also warns that authoritarian tendencies are taking hold in many democracies. "Many elected governments have hollowed out core democratic institutions in order to stay in power. This abuse of power paves the way towards autocracy," says democracy expert and study author Sabine Donner.
However, the overall picture also includes some positive developments. In Brazil and Poland, for instance, there has been a democratic turnaround, even if its long-term success in polarised societies is far from assured. These examples point to a growing democratic capacity to learn, to protect institutions and to seize windows of opportunity for reform.
Poland: a pioneer in democratic resilience
After years of democratic backsliding, the current government under Donald Tusk has set a new course: it has launched reforms to strengthen the rule of law, depoliticise state institutions and fight corruption. Poland thus exemplifies what the report describes as a rare counter-movement: democratic resilience.
While many governments deliberately weaken institutions, Warsaw has at least partially succeeded in reinforcing precisely these structures. According to the BTI, this is anything but a given, since the dismantling of democratic systems often originates with elected governments themselves.
"With the primary aim of remaining in power, elected political elites have continued the gradual erosion of core democratic institutions," states the report "Repression Meets Resistance" by Sabine Donner, Hauke Hartmann and Sebastian Plate.
However, the report warns that once institutions have been weakened, they can only be rebuilt slowly. Reform efforts are often slowed down by the remaining networks of previous governments, political polarisation and institutional deadlock.
Poland also illustrates this: despite progress, trust in state institutions remains low and the political landscape is highly polarised. The return to stable democratic standards is a lengthy process.
Germany itself, like 22 other OECD countries classified as stable democracies, is not included in the BTI study. But the trends described are by no means confined to other regions of the world. Growing polarisation, declining trust in institutions and pressure on democratic procedures are developments that also put established democracies to the test. The example of Poland shows that democratic backsliding does not have to be permanent – but also how fragile such processes remain.