Establishing a timeline to transition away from fossil fuels is COP30’s trickiest agenda.
The transition away from fossil fuels is rapidly becoming a flashpoint of COP30, as heated negotiations near their final hour.
Despite increasing investment in the clean energy sector, experts warn progress towards a fossil fuel-free future is not “happening fast enough” – with global emissions still climbing.
However, developing a roadmap that manages the transition in a just way, which addresses energy access and economic reliance, is proving a challenge. So, will COP30 finally be able to establish a roadmap?
Ending fossil fuels - the timeline
At COP28 in Dubai, almost 200 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve net zero by 2050 - although they were not forced to take any specific action.
This was the first COP text to mention a global shift away from using fossil fuels, but progress was halted at COP29 in Azerbaijan when parties could not come to an agreement on including clear references on how this would be done.
This sparked fury among environmentalists who argue countries reliant on fossil fuels were “backsliding” on previous discussions.
It makes establishing a roadmap for clean energy one of COP30’s most contentious agendas - and time is rapidly running out for a final deal in Belem.
Can COP30 pull off a fossil fuel phaseout roadmap?
Yesterday (19 November), Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva put a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels back at the epicentre of climate talks.
“We need to show society that we want this without imposing anything on anyone, without setting deadlines for each country to decide what it can do within its own time, within its own possibilities,” he said.
Silva went on to argue that the world needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, adding: “We need to start thinking about how to live without fossil fuels.”
Though phasing out fossil fuels was not originally on the official agenda for COP30, there has been growing political momentum around the issue as the summit has progressed.
On 18 November ministers from more than 20 countries convened a press conference, led by Denmark, to issue a joint call for the summit’s final deal to include a commitment to develop a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
So far, the coalition spans more than 80 countries, including industrialised nations like the UK, Germany and the Netherlands and developing countries like Colombia, Kenya and vulnerable Pacific Island states.
Where does Europe stand?
Current roadmap backers include many European countries such as Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.
At a press conference on Wednesday, EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra urged parties to reinforce ambition, saying we are “coming dangerously close to destructive tipping points”.
“We very much like it,” he said of the proposed roadmap, “whether we are going to call it a roadmap or use different wording is secondary.”
Though it has not officially backed the roadmap yet, the EU has presented a proposal calling for a broader energy roadmap to be launched at COP30, which includes transitioning away from fossil fuels.
It requests the current and incoming COP presidencies "continuously" develop the roadmap, as well as provide an annual synthesis report.
It also "encourages all parties to accelerate the implementation of the global efforts" of the COP28 outcome, in adherence with the Paris Agreement.
The UK has also been vocal in supporting a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. In Belem on Tuesday, Ed Miliband, the UK’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, argued that the issue cannot be “swept under the carpet”.
“We have an opportunity to make COP30 the moment we take forward what we agreed at COP28,” he added.
“The actions we’re taking in the UK not to issue new oil and gas licenses are about climate, energy security and costs. The more secure option for us is cheap, clean renewables.”
Many South American countries such as Chile, Colombia, Peru and Brazil have supported the roadmap - as well as nations in Oceania and the Caribbean.
Which countries are likely to contest?
While more supporters are expected to join the call for a roadmap, it is clear not every nation will be on board. Deals are made by consensus at the UN climate conference, which makes agreement from the nearly 200 parties vital.
The US, the largest historical contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, is notably absent from COP30 - while Canada, which continues to approve the expansion of fossil fuels, is yet to show support.
A huge void of support looms over the Middle East, where fossil fuel-rich nations like Saudi Arabia are feared to contest. There is a lack of support currently coming from Asia, while Japan focuses on replacing fossil fuel power generation with decarbonised alternatives using hydrogen and ammonia.
“You might as well start mixing dollars with coal and burn them, calling it a biofuel,” says energy analyst Paul Martin.
‘A public health imperative’
The call to end fossil fuels isn’t solely coming from environmentalists, and has been described as a “public health imperative” by physicians, nurses and health and medical students representing millions of workers worldwide.
At a COP30 press conference, experts argued that a transition away from fossil fuels is the fastest public health intervention available to save lives from a plethora of pollution-related diseases.
Health leaders highlighted a new report titled Cradle To Grave from the Global Climate and Health Alliance that found pregnant women exposed to fossil fuel pollution are at higher risk of pre-term birth, low birth weight and congenital abnormalities - while children are more likely to suffer from illnesses such as asthma and respiratory infections.
“Every year of delay means more asthma attacks, more cardiovascular emergencies, more cancers and more premature deaths - all of them preventable,” warns Dr Joe Vipod, Past President at the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE).
“Transitioning away from fossil fuels isn’t just good climate policy: it’s life-saving health policy. Every delay means more preventable illness and more avoidable deaths.”
