A new report highlights how governments’ fossil fuel production plans contradict climate commitments.
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Top fossil fuel-producing countries are moving forward with extensive oil, gas and coal plans that undermine global climate commitments, a new report warns.
The Paris climate agreement seeks to keep global temperature rise below 2°C, preferably limiting it to 1.5°C. In order to do this, countries need to quickly reduce investment in coal, oil, and gas.
But a new report finds that some of the biggest fossil fuel-producing countries are planning even more fossil fuel production than before, putting these climate ambitions at risk. In total, governments plan to produce nearly 120 per cent more fossil fuels by 2030 than the levels needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
When looking at the more “protective” goal of 2°C, their plans entail 77 per cent more production than what’s needed to limit warming.
What do the numbers show?
The report, written by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas.
It compares these plans with the global production levels needed to stay consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.
Experts analysed 20 major fossil fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These countries are in total responsible for 80 per cent of global fossil fuel production.
This “production gap” was last assessed in 2023. At the time, the fossil fuel production gap was 110 per cent above the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming pathway and 69 per cent more than the 2°C warming pathway.
Since then, the gap has grown. Countries are now planning to expand coal and gas production even more than they were two years ago. Now, planned coal production for 2030, for example, is 7 per cent higher than previously estimated, and planned gas production is 5 per cent higher.
The 2025 report also shows that when looking ahead to 2050, projected total fossil fuel production is 4.5 times higher than what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, and 2.5 times higher than that needed for a 2°C limit.
“While many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago,” says Derik Broekhoff, coordinating lead author of the Production Gap Report and climate policy programme Director at SEI’s US Centre.
What are specific countries doing?
All 20 countries are still providing both substantial financial and policy support for general fossil-fuel production, according to the report.
More than half of the countries plan to significantly increase gas production. And while countries like Australia, Colombia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan view gas as a “transition fuel,” they lack explicit plans to actually make that transition.
Six countries have set goals more aligned with national and global net-zero targets. In the EU, Germany is planning a fast phase-out of coal production. China is deploying renewable technologies at an “unprecedented rate,” already hitting its 2030 target for solar and wind capacity. Colombia and Brazil have also adopted energy transition programmes.
But adoption and implementation need to be more widespread.
“Governments must commit to expand renewables, phase out fossil fuels, manage energy demands, and implement community-centred energy transitions to align with Paris Agreement obligations,” says Emily Ghosh, coordinating lead author and Equitable Transitions Program Director at SEI US.
“Without these commitments, delaying action further will lock in additional emissions and worsen climate impacts on the world's most vulnerable populations.”
