A record defence budget and an expanding missile and drone programme mark a decisive shift for Japan, as it clears path to become the world’s third-largest military spender.
Japan’s Cabinet on Friday approved a record defence budget plan exceeding 9 trillion yen (€48.82mn) for the coming year, aiming to fortify its strike-back capability and coastal defence with cruise missiles and unmanned arsenals as tensions rise in the region.
The draft budget for the upcoming 2026 fiscal year, beginning in April, is up 9.4% from 2025 and marks the fourth year of Japan’s ongoing five-year programme to double annual arms spending to 2% of gross domestic product.
“It is the minimum needed as Japan faces the severest and most complex security environment in the postwar era,” Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said, stressing his country’s determination to pursue military buildup and protect its people.
“It does not change our path as a peace-loving nation,” he said.
Third-largest spender after US and China
The budget plan requires parliamentary approval by March to be implemented as part of a 122.3 trillion yen (€663bn) national budget bill.
The five-year defence buildup programme would make it the world’s third-largest spender after the US and China.
Takaichi’s government plans to fund its growing military spending by raising corporate and tobacco taxes and recently adopted a plan for an income tax increases beginning in 2027. Prospects for future growth at a higher percentage of GDP remain unclear.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November that her country’s military could get involved if China were to take action against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing says must come under its rule.
Takaichi’s government, under US pressure for a military increase, pledged to achieve the 2% target by March, two years earlier than planned.
Japan also plans to revise its ongoing security and defence policy by December 2026 to further strengthen its military.
Missiles and drones add to long-range defence
Japan has been bolstering its offensive capability with long-range missiles to attack enemy targets from a distance, a major break from its post-World War II principle of limiting the use of force to its own self-defence.
The current security strategy, adopted in 2022, names China as the country’s biggest strategic challenge and calls for a more offensive role for Japan’s Self-Defence Force under its security alliance with the US.
The new budget plan includes a 177 billion-yen (€960.2mn) purchase of domestically developed and upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles with a range of about 1,000 kilometres.
The first batch of the Type-12 missiles will be deployed in Japan’s southwestern Kumamoto prefecture by March, a year earlier than planned, as Japan accelerates its missile buildup in the region.
In part due to Japan’s ageing and declining population and its struggles with an understaffed military, the government believes unmanned weapons are essential.
To defend the coasts, Japan will spend 100 billion yen (€542.5mn) to deploy “massive” unmanned air, sea-surface and underwater drones for surveillance and defence under a system called “SHIELD” planned for March 2028, defence ministry officials said.
For speedier deployment, Japan initially plans to rely mainly on imports, possibly from Turkey or Israel.
Tension with China grows
The disagreement escalated this month when Chinese aircraft carrier drills near southwestern Japan prompted Tokyo to protest when China locked their radar on a Japanese aircraft, which is considered possible preparation for firing missiles.
The Defence Ministry, already alarmed by China’s rapid expansion of operations in the Pacific, will open a new office dedicated to studying operations, equipment and other necessities for Japan to deal with China’s Pacific activity.
Two Chinese aircraft carriers were spotted in June almost simultaneously operating near the southern Japanese island of Iwo Jima for the first time, fueling Tokyo’s concern about Beijing’s rapidly expanding military activity far beyond its borders and areas around the disputed East China Sea islands.
In Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said the Takaichi government has “noticeably accelerated its pace of military buildup and expansion” since taking office.
“Japan is deviating from the path of peaceful development it has long claimed to uphold and is moving further and further in a dangerous direction,” Lin said.
Japan plans joint development of frigates and jets
Japan is pushing to strengthen its largely domestic defence industry by participating in joint developments with friendly nations and promoting foreign sales after drastically easing arms export restrictions in recent years.
For 2026, Japan plans to spend more than 160 billion yen (€867mn) to jointly develop a next-generation fighter jet with Britain and Italy for deployment in 2035. There are also plans for research and development of AI-operated drones designed to fly with the jet.
In a major boost to the country’s defence industry, Australia selected Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in August to upgrade the Mogami-class frigate to replace its fleet of 11 ANZAC-class ships.
