Socialists are backing the Commission President but only in exchange for budget guarantees, including the European Social Fund, and political divisions and tensions within the groups remain.
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Ursula von der Leyen appeared to secure more votes protecting her from Thursday's motion of censure, as Socialists pledged their support for the Commission President in exchange for assurances on the EU budget, including the European Social Fund.
The far-right-led motion of no-confidence will go to a roll call vote around midday on Thursday, with von der Leyen's and the entire Commission's future put to the test in the confidence vote.
The motion, spearheaded by the Patriots for Europe, Europe of Sovereign Nations, and a fraction of the European Conservatives and Reformists, has gathered significant support but would need a two-thirds majority for the vote of no-confidence to be successful.
With the European People’s Party (EPP) firmly opposed and many in the centre-left and liberal groups rejecting the motion on principle, the opposition will likely fall short.
The Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the second-largest group in the European Parliament, came out firmly against the motion on Wednesday after receiving reassurances from von der Leyen that the European Social Fund (ESF) will remain a cornerstone of the next EU budget.
An S&D spokesperson told Euronews that President von der Leyen gave the group reassurances that the next EU budget will include the European Social Fund (ESF), a clear red line for Socialists. This is the main reason why the group will stand by the Commission.
For the S&D, this was a non-negotiable demand and a key reason behind their decision to stand by the Commission, despite some internal dissent. A few MEPs from the group might still abstain, but overall, the vote will lean in favour of the Commission’s survival.
Tensions and doubts that group lines will be strictly followed
The Renew Europe group has also voiced opposition to the censure motion, with members claiming that the far-right’s tactics must not be allowed to succeed.
However, internal tensions remain. Some MEPs, particularly from Fianna Fáil in Ireland, were reluctant to fully back von der Leyen, with a few choosing to abstain, including MEP Barry Andrews.
The Greens/EFA group, while mostly aligned in rejecting the motion, has also seen some splits within its ranks. Italian and Spanish Green MEPs are planning to abstain by not participating in the vote, stating their opposition to von der Leyen’s policies but unwilling to back a far-right motion aimed at her removal.
The Left group, which has been vocal in its criticism of the Commission, remains divided. While most will abstain to protest von der Leyen’s leadership, parties like Sinn Féin and Italy’s Five Star Movement are expected to vote in favour of the motion, signalling their dissatisfaction with the current direction of the EU.
Proponents of the censure motion will struggle today to find the votes for it to pass, but support for von der Leyen is likely to fall well below the 370 that originally approved her Commission in 2024.
As reported, the motion itself is seen as having weakened her position, and today’s vote marks another chapter in the growing political fractures within the European Parliament, signalling a tough road ahead for the Commission's leadership.
Shona Murray contributed reporting from Brussels.