Ceasefire offers Trump exit as Iran war becomes political liability

Within hours on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump went from threatening to annihilate Iran’s civilization to announcing a ceasefire with Iran and a potentially bright future for the Middle East where “big money will be made”.

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The deal would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened—presumably under Iranian control, a condition which did not exist prior to the war as the strait was seen as an international waterway—in exchange for a two-week pause in bombing, during which Washington and Tehran would negotiate a broader agreement to end the war.

Even if many details were not immediately clear, Trump’s U-turn on Iran is pulling the country from the brink of further death and destruction – for now.

And it might save Trump from further criticism and eroding support at home.

“After weeks of speculation and uncertainty, both sides were looking for an exit, for different reasons,” said Ian Lesser, an expert of US foreign and security policy at the German Marshall Fund.

“And for Trump, the war is becoming a political liability from which he wants to move on.”

That political liability has become more and more palpable domestically over the past few days, as the latest polling and strong results from the Democrats in Tuesday’s special elections indicated a clear anti-war backlash.

Trump’s threat that carried the inherent suggestion that he would target even cultural or religious sites and kill innocent people at random, came as a shock to the American public.

Such public language, never heard of from a US president before, drew condemnation across the political spectrum and fuelled open debate about the president’s morality.

"The President’s threat that ‘a whole civilisation will die tonight’ cannot be excused away as an attempt to gain leverage in negotiations with Iran,” Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski said in a statement.

“This type of rhetoric is an affront to the ideals our nation has sought to uphold and promote around the world for nearly 250 years. It undermines our long-standing role as a global beacon of freedom and directly endangers Americans both abroad and at home.”

Conservative economist Oren Cass offered a similar criticism: “We should not launch strikes intended to devastate the lives of millions of people and take our nation to total war without indisputable justification,” he wrote on X.

“We are not living in some quantum thought experiment where (Trump) simultaneously is and is not serious.”

Robert P. George, a conservative law professor at Princeton University was so outraged by Trump’s latest threat that he said military officers should refuse to comply with orders “to commit crimes against civilians”.

Even the Pope issued a strong rebuke of Trump, calling the threat to destroy Iran’s civilization “truly unacceptable”.

At first glance, Trump’s deal with Iran appears to resolve a crisis of the president’s own making, as critics noted on Wednesday.

“Trump struck a deal to reopen a Strait that was open before the pointless war he started,” said Ben Rhodes who served as Barack Obama’s deputy national security advisor.

It leaves Tehran in control of the Strait “potentially extracting fees plus sanction relief,” he wrote on X.

“A profoundly shameful episode in American history no matter what happens next.”

The White House portrayed Trump’s 11th hour move as a breakthrough to come to a final peace agreement with Iran.

“The success of our military created maximum leverage, allowing President Trump and the team to engage in tough negotiations that have now created an opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

But besides proving once again America’s military superiority, Trump’s war of choice that he and Israel have unleashed hasn’t yielded sizable positive results after almost five weeks of airstrikes. On the contrary.

“What about the nuclear threat? Does it still exist? And is Iran still a threat to its neighbors? Will the deal address those questions?,” asked Ian Lesser.

To date, 13 American service members have been killed, along with dozens of civilians in Israel and Lebanon, and thousands in Iran.

In addition, the Iranian campaign has left America’s stockpiles of weapons depleted, its traditional allies in Europe and Asia alienated and regional partners terrified.

And it comes with a price tag. According to an analysis by the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the war costs the United States hundreds of millions of dollars a day so far, between $22 and $33 billion over the five weeks since Trump ordered the military to attack.

About one tenth of that is the price of military equipment destroyed in the fighting, the same analysis states.

Then there is the economic fallout adding to the war’s unpopularity in the US.

On Wednesday, news of the ceasefire led to a collective sigh of relieve on financial markets.

Oil prices have fallen well below the critical $100 mark, paving the way for a potential easing of politically sensitive gasoline prices.

Equity markets advanced firmly, beginning in Asia and Europe before extending gains to Wall Street.

For now, operators see the ceasefire as more of a reprieve than a resolution.

“The mood remains one of cautious optimism rather than outright celebration,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade in New York.

“The ceasefire is only two weeks long, and markets will be watching closely to see whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes as promised and whether the fragile truce can pave the way for a more durable peace agreement.”

It’s hard to imagine that Trump, who is very sensitive to market movements, would revive the bombing campaign in two weeks, should he and Iran not come to an agreement.

“But then, anything is possible, anything can go wrong and Trump can resume bombing in two days,” Lesser said.

“Public pressure or not, his measures of success are his own. This thing is not over yet.”