Poland's per capita income calculated in purchasing power parity (PPP) has overtaken Spain as it edges closer to UK levels.
According to IMF forecasts, the per capita income of Poland, calculated in PPP, was around €49,650 last year.
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This number is slightly higher than Spain's, which is estimated at roughly €49,465.
Per capita income calculated in PPP adjusts a country's GDP per capita to account for differences in the cost of living, enabling a more accurate comparison of living standards.
Therefore, the difference is primarily due to the faster growth rate of the Polish economy. Poland's GDP is expected to grow by around 3.6%, while in Spain it is expected to expand by 2.8%.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk assessed the figures as a sign that Poland was entering the "European economic elite", noting that the country had "surpassed Spain" in this important indicator.
IMF forecasts also indicate that Poland has already reached around 87% of the UK's per capita income in PPP terms. Just a decade ago, such a result seemed unrealistic.
Government estimates project that, if current trends are maintained, Poland could catch up with the UK in the next five or six years.
Interpreting Poland's success story
Poland's ascendancy in the rankings has sparked a discussion about the extent to which this indicator truly reflects the level of wealth in society.
Speaking to Euronews, Marek Zuber, Polish economist and WSB Academy expert, points out that although PPP is an imperfect measure, it provides a more complete picture than GDP per capita alone.
"Income per capita in terms of purchasing power parity is better than simply dividing GDP by the number of inhabitants, because it takes into account the purchasing capacity in a country," the economist emphasised.
At the same time, Zuber points out that the latest data shows one thing above all: "One can say that Poles are getting rich faster than Spaniards. We have caught up with the Spaniards".
However, the economist added that this is "still only one piece of a broader puzzle depicting the country's real wealth".
"Price-adjusted per capita income is one thing, but the replacement rate of pensions, health spending and accumulated wealth are also hugely important to measure real living standards," Zuber explained.
The Polish economist pointed out that there is still a significant difference in inherited wealth and real estate ownership, which in many Western countries raises the real wealth of households, while in Poland it is still relatively modest.
The expert also noted that disposable income, expenditure structure and levels of social security largely determine how wealth is "felt", regardless of GDP growth.
Finally, Zuber explained that the current economic acceleration is largely driven by consumption, supported by social transfers and wage growth.
"The rebound we have seen after 2023 is mainly due to wage growth in Poland. Consumption was basically the only driver of growth in 2024," the economist estimated.
Poland's debt is growing alongside the economy
Although the Polish economy is accelerating and recording a decent growth rate, analyses by EU institutions warn that this development goes hand in hand with mounting public debt.
The European Commission's latest Debt Sustainability Monitor 2025 forecasts that if current fiscal policy and debt growth rates continue, Poland's public debt could exceed 100% of GDP as early as 2036, reaching as high as around 107%.
Economists argue that Poland is very likely to exceed 70% of public debt to GDP in the coming years.
Speaking to Euronews, Marek Zuber warned that "Poland is not in danger of a Greek scenario, but we are reaching the ceiling. Further increases in social spending could lead to a sharp outflow of capital."
Despite these reservations, Zuber remains a moderate optimist, forecasting that with investment growth and improved exports, the Polish economy could grow by up to 4.5% this year.