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Bank of England governor says 'low probability' of worst-case Brexit scenario happening

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Bank of England governor says 'low probability' of worst-case Brexit scenario happening

Bank of England governor says 'low probability' of worst-case Brexit scenario happening
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Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney said there was a "low probability" of a worst-case Brexit scenario happening, referencing last week's BoE report that said a "disorderly" no-deal Brexit could be worse for the UK than the financial crisis.

"Tail risk is tail risk," he said in response to questions from Tuesday's select committee on the report. There's a "low probabilty that all these risks would happen at the same time."

"It's not just a question of the formal trade barriers that come into play but also shorter term disruption in terms of port infrastructure and other logistical disruptions."

"Also a fairly severe market reaction and a shock to confidence," he added.

Carney also hit back at critics of the BoE report, which detailed several worst-case scenarios for Britain's economy, dependent on the nature of a Brexit deal (if any).

Reminding critics that a large team of 20 economists had worked on the report over a period of several years, he said it wasn't the result of staying "up all night" to simply write a letter to the Treasury Committee.

"You asked for something that we had, and we brought it and we gave it to you," he said.

Re-cap on the Bank of England report

The report released by the Bank of England last week detailed the following worst-case scenario for the UK's economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

  • GDP could shrink up to 8% by next year

  • House prices could fall around 30%

  • Sharp drops in the value of sterling

  • Spikes in inflation and interest rates

READ: What you need to know about the bombshell Brexit reports