Set of polls indicate that Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party is ahead of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz by 19–23 points among likely voters. Hungarians head to the polls in Europe's most consequential election on 12 April.
Hungary's opposition Tisza Party has increased its lead over the ruling Fidesz party ahead of the 12 April parliamentary elections, according to a set of polls.
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A survey by the 21 Research Institute, published Wednesday commissioned by the news portal 24.hu, shows Tisza has 56% support among Hungarians who have already decided their vote, compared to 37% for Fidesz — a gap of 19 percentage points. Across the general population, the Tisza Party leads with 40 %, compared to 28 % for Fidesz.
In relation to surveys conducted in early March and in January by the same institute, Fidesz's support remains broadly stable while Tisza has gained ground. The institute estimates that Tisza could have 900,000 more supporters than Fidesz nationwide.
When translated into parliamentary seats, the 21 Research Institute calculated that if elections were held this Sunday, Tisza would secure a stable majority with 129 seats in the 199-seat National Assembly, while Fidesz would receive 64 seats and the far-right Our Homeland Movement six.
A separate poll by the Medián institute, released one week ago, showed similar results. It showed Tisza leads 58% to 35% among likely voters with a party preference, and 46% to 30% across the wider population.
Medián said Tisza's lead had widened since its previous survey, with the 23-point margin potentially sufficient to deliver a two-thirds parliamentary supermajority.
Medián also projected that, if elections were held this Sunday, only two parties — Fidesz and Tisza — would clear the threshold to enter parliament.
Led by Péter Magyar, Tisza has maintained a lead over in polls Fidesz since the start of 2025, emerging as the most significant electoral challenger to Orbán's 16-year year rule.