Iceland was supposed to vote on joining the EU in 2027. Now? That vote might happen this August. Why the sudden rush? Two words: Donald Trump.
US tariffs are biting. US President Donald Trump has threatened to annex nearby Greenland. And his nominee for ambassador just joked about making Iceland America's 52nd state.
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With such friends around, suddenly Brussels bureaucracy looks incredibly appealing. Let’s investigate together.
Iceland actually applied to join the EU in 2009 after its banking system collapsed. But as the economy recovered, Reykjavik froze negotiations in 2013 and completely withdrew its bid two years later.
The biggest stumbling block today? Fishing rights. Iceland's economy relies on its waters, and handing over control is a tough sell. Or at least it was before Brexit?
For Brussels, Iceland would bring in some extra funds. Its GDP per capita is roughly double the EU average.
But we have to remember their size. Iceland's population is less than 1/1,000 of the entire 27-member bloc.
Plus, they are already deeply integrated. Iceland is a founding NATO member and is part of the European Economic Area, adopting EU laws without voting.
But let's also look at the big picture in the Arctic.
Norway uses this exact model. Oslo is in the EEA but outside the EU, and polls show a slim majority still opposes full EU membership.
Then there is Greenland, which left the EU's predecessor in 1985 over fishing quotas. Today, it remains outside the bloc as an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark.
Trump has repeatedly called the EU "bad" for trade. But for Iceland right now, becoming the 52nd US state sounds a whole lot worse.
So as they say in Reykjavik: skál.