Projected population changes across Europe vary significantly, with the EU population set to fall by 53 million by 2100. Experts point to the role of immigration in explaining differences between countries. By 2100, one in three Europeans will be over 65.
The fertility rate is declining and the population is ageing in Europe. The latest projections from Eurostat show that the EU population is expected to fall by 11.7% between 2025 and 2100. The population will decline from 452 million to 399 million, a decrease of 53 million people by the start of the next century. This projection includes possible migration.
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The projected population change across Europe varies widely. Some countries will have larger populations in 2100 compared to 2025, while many others will see declines.
So, which countries will face the sharpest population declines? Which countries will grow? What drives these differences across countries? Why do some populations rise while others fall?
Among 30 European countries, 12 are expected to see population growth, while 18 will experience declines by 2100.
Latvia (33.9%), Lithuania (33.4%), Poland (31.6%) and Greece (30.1%) are projected to record the largest declines, all above 30%. This means that more than three in ten people could be lost by 2100.
The decline is also above 20% in Bulgaria (28%), Croatia (27%), Slovakia (26.7%), Romania (24.3%), Italy (24%) and Hungary (22.5%). This is roughly equivalent to losing about one in four people in these countries, which is highly significant.
The population decline is also between 10% and 20% in Portugal (19.3%), Estonia (19.1%), Czechia (11.5%), Finland (10.7%), Slovenia (10.6%) and Germany (10.6%).
In contrast, three European countries are set to grow by more than 25%, although their populations are relatively small: Luxembourg (36.4%), Iceland (27.1%) and Malta (26%).
Switzerland (16.9%), Ireland (14.6%), Norway (11.8%) and Sweden (10%) are other countries expected to see population increases of over 10%.
“Mainly driven by past and projected migration rates”
“This variation is mainly driven by the differences in past and projected migration rates, in combination with the differences in the age structure,” Dr Tomas Sobotka, deputy director of Vienna Institute of Demography, told Euronews Health.
“Countries with low fertility and outmigration in the past decades tend to have an older age structure, with few people in young and reproductive ages.”
Sobotka pointed out that this variation in population dynamics is also influenced by the differences in projected fertility rates but “to a smaller extent”. Southern European countries have and are expected to have lower fertility than other parts of Europe.
Dr Anne Goujon from the Vienna Institute of Demography also stated that the main reason for these differences is the balance between natural change and net migration.
“While all EU countries have low fertility, countries with sustained immigration can still grow despite low fertility beyond 2050 (e.g. Luxembourg and Malta), while countries with low fertility and weaker migration inflows or negative net migration balance tend to decline (e.g., Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland),” she told Euronews Health.
Role of fertility and mortality are limited in differences
According to Dr Dmitri Jdanov from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, three main factors explain population dynamics: mortality, fertility and migration.
He explained that the current level of fertility cannot support even the current population size, so natural increase is unavoidable without migration. The country-specific differences in mortality in this projection are not large enough to explain the differences in population dynamics.
“Migration is the only factor that can ensure population growth in Europe. Obviously, assumptions regarding migration differ from country to country,” he told Euronews Health..
Spain only ‘Big Four’ country to see population growth
Among the EU’s ‘Big Four’ countries in terms of economic size and population, Spain is the only country expected to see population growth by 2100, although it is modest at 1.3%.
France is projected to decline slightly by 2.5%. Germany (10.6%) and especially Italy (24%) are expected to see larger population declines.
“Spain has experienced a huge level of immigration in the last three decades, which kept its population growing fast despite very low fertility rates in the country,” Sobotka said.
He underlined that France has a higher fertility rate than most other EU countries, and its slightly higher fertility rate, younger population structure and moderate immigration are projected to keep its population roughly stable.
Sobotka pointed to the role of lower fertility and an aged population in Italy.
Population rankings shift: Spain surpasses Italy
Projected population trends will also change the rankings of the most populous countries between 2025 and 2100.
The most notable change is that Spain is set to overtake Italy to become the third most populous country. Over this period, Italy’s population is expected to decline by 15 million, while Spain’s will increase by around half a million.
Among the 30 countries, Switzerland (15th to 10th), Ireland (21st to 17th) and Norway (19th to 16th) will see the biggest rises in the rankings. In contrast, Bulgaria (16th to 20th), Portugal (10th to 13th) and Greece (12th to 15th) will record the largest declines.
Uneven population trends across Europe
Projected population changes are not linear across Europe between 2025 and 2100. In some countries, populations will grow for a period before starting to decline. As a result, the final level may be either lower or higher than in 2025.
When populations in 2025 are indexed at 100, demographic trends vary widely across countries, showing different patterns of growth and decline. For example, in the EU, the population is expected to fall below current levels by 2040. In Spain, it is projected to rise by around 10%t by 2055, before falling back to just 1 percent above 2025 levels by 2100.
However, some countries follow a downward trend throughout the period. This decline is sharper in Italy, while it is more gradual in Germany.
One in three Europeans will be over 65 by 2100
Looking at changes in age groups, the EU population is projected to be significantly older by 2100. The chart above for the EU shows this gradual but profound demographic shift.
The share of people aged 85 and over is expected to more than triple, rising from 3.2% in 2025 to 10.8 % by 2100. That means more than one in ten Europeans will be in this age group.
Those aged between 66 to 84 are also projected to increase their share, from 17.6% to 21.8%. Combined, the over-65 population will make up nearly one in three Europeans by 2100, compared to one in five today.
Meanwhile, every younger age group is expected to shrink as a share of the total. The working-age population between 31 and 65 — the backbone of European economies — is projected to decline from 47.8%to 40.5%.
