Euronews Health takes a closer look at declining fertility rates across Europe. Experts point to multifaceted reasons behind the decline, and Europe is not alone in facing this trend.
The total fertility rate in the European Union, which shows the number of live births per woman, fell to its lowest level in more than six decades. The rate has almost halved over the past 60 years, dropping from 2.62 in 1964 to 1.34 in 2024.
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The total fertility rate varies widely across Europe in 2024, ranging from 1.01 in Malta to 1.72 in Bulgaria within the EU.
So, which countries have the highest and lowest total fertility rates (TFR) across Europe? Which countries have seen the largest declines in fertility rates? What factors are driving these declines?
The TFR in the EU has been below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman since the mid-1970s, according to the World Bank.
The EU is not alone: A global fertility decline
“What we are observing in the EU in terms of declining TFR is generally what would be expected based on demographic transition theory, whereby access to education, contraception, and a range of other covariates are influencing fertility trends and population compositions over time,” a World Health Organization (WHO) Europe spokesperson told Euronews Health.
The spokesperson emphasised that the EU is not an isolated case.
The number of countries and territories worldwide with a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 is projected to rise from around half in 2018 (103 of 204) to 155 by 2050, and to 198 by 2100, exceeding 97 percent.
Among around 40 European countries in the list, all are below this level as of 2024 according to Eurostat. Montenegro has the highest fertility rate at 1.75, followed by Bulgaria (1.72), Georgia (1.69), Albania and Serbia (both 1.64).
France tops fertility rates among major economies
France has the highest fertility rate among Europe’s major economies, at 1.61. The United Kingdom (1.56) is close to that level, although the latest available data is from 2023 and may be lower for 2024. In England and Wales, the rate is lower at 1.41, according to the ONS.
Germany is just above the EU average at 1.36. Spain (1.10) has the lowest fertility rate not only among the largest economies but also the second lowest overall, closely followed by Italy (1.18).
In Turkey, the most populous country among EU members and candidate countries, the fertility rate stands at 1.48 after a significant decline over the past decade.
In the Nordics, Iceland (1.56) ranks highest, followed by Denmark (1.47), Norway (1.45) and Sweden (1.43). Finland (1.25), however, has a lower rate, falling below the EU average.
Among other countries, the number of live births per woman is 1.47 in Ireland, 1.44 in Belgium, 1.41 in Hungary, 1.31 in Austria, 1.24 in Greece and 1.14 in Poland.
Why do fertility rates differ across Europe?
“Explaining cross-national differences in fertility remains challenging, particularly because many factors that previously explained variation between countries appear to have weakened in recent years,” Dr Julia Hellstrand from the University of Helsinki.
“For example, Nordic countries with comparatively generous family policies have also experienced very strong fertility declines, suggesting that policy support alone cannot explain current trends.”
Do policies help keep fertility rates high?
The WHO Europe spokesperson noted that apart from education and contraception access, factors related to affordable housing, dwelling sizes, mortgage considerations, costs of having and bringing up a child, ability to balance work and childbearing, among other socio-economic considerations, influence people’s reproductive decisions.
Many governments have implemented multisectoral and/or diverse policies to enable people to realise their fertility preferences. Examples are direct payments for having children, tax benefits, subsidised early years childcare, and parental leave, among others.
“However, evidence regarding the extent and consistency of the effects of these interventions on TFR across Europe is uncertain,” the spokesperson said.
First birth age gap across Europe
Hellstrand alsopointed out that in Northern and Western Europe, fertility decline below replacement and postponement of childbearing began earlier, already in the 1960s, and these countries now have relatively high mean ages at first birth.
In contrast, many Eastern European countries experienced these changes later and still tend to have somewhat lower mean ages at first birth.
Fertility rate change in the past 10 years
Looking at how fertility rates changed over the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, only a few countries recorded increases while many saw significant declines. In the EU, it fell from 1.54 to 1.34, a decline of 0.20 in absolute terms.
Turkey stands out with the largest drop, down by 0.69 in absolute terms, or 32 percent, falling from 2.17 to 1.48. A recent Euronews Health article, ‘Why is Turkey recording Europe’s steepest fertility decline over the past decade?’, took a closer look at this.
The decline also exceeded 0.35 in several countries, including Finland and Lithuania (both 0.46), Sweden (0.45), Ireland (0.42), Latvia (0.41), France (0.39), Iceland and Malta (both 0.37), and Estonia (0.36).
“In Finland, fertility has experienced one of the sharpest declines in Europe, a development often considered puzzling given the country’s relatively strong family policy framework,” Hellstrand said.
“Childfree ideals have become more common”
She stated that between 2010 and 2024, the fall in fertility has been driven primarily by declining first births, which account for approximately 82 percent of the overall decrease.
“At the same time, childfree ideals have become more common, although survey evidence suggests that many individuals still end up having fewer children than they would ideally prefer,” she added.
The absolute decrease was 0.27 in the UK, 0.22 in Spain, 0.20 in Italy, and 0.15 in Germany.
“Some countries, such as those in Southern Europe, already have such low birth rates that it is difficult for them to drop much more,” Prof Eva Beaujouan, from the University of Vienna, told Euronews Health.
During the same period, Bosnia and Herzegovina recorded the largest increase, at 0.21, followed by Serbia (0.18), Portugal (0.17), and Bulgaria (0.10).
Beaujouan stated that birth rates have been cyclically low in European countries since the 20th century. “Nevertheless, the speed of the decline in the 'higher' fertility countries (the Nordic countries, France, etc.) is unusual,” she told.
Parenting standards increased
She attributed this to a combination of reasons: First, people have become accustomed to providing their children with decent living conditions and a good education. Parenting standards have increased, both emotionally and financially.
“However, when faced with growing uncertainty about the future (e.g. several wars and inflation) and their own financial instability, prospective parents may no longer feel able to offer the best opportunities to more than one child, and may also choose to wait,” Beaujouan said.
Second, it remains difficult to balance a demanding job with raising children in most societies. Third, people are having children later in life. This delay contributes to a temporary decrease in fertility rates.
The WHO Europe spokesperson suggested that focusing on TFR trends over a short time, such as 10 years, is not always useful because such data can be affected by temporal shocks (for example, the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic uncertainty) that may affect the timing of childbirths but have limited impact on the overall total numbers of children a person has over a lifetime.
