Turkey’s total fertility rate fell from 2.11 to 1.51 between 2013 and 2023. Beyond long-term structural and cultural changes, experts point to economic instability and institutional constraints as key factors behind the recent sharp decline.
Declining fertility rates across Europe have become a clear trend but one country that has long relied on its young population now finds itself in an alarming position: Turkey.
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“We are currently facing a disaster,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in November 2025, which had already been declared the ‘Year of the Family’ in the country to reverse declining fertility rates.
Between 2013 and 2023, Turkey’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell from 2.11 to 1.51 according to the country’s statistic agency TurkStat. Among 34 European countries, Turkey recorded the largest decline in this period, both in absolute terms (0.6) and percentage terms (28.4%).
Over the same period, the EU’s TFR declined from 1.51 to 1.38. As 2023 is the most recent year available for the EU in Eurostat data, that year is used for comparisons.
The decline is even sharper when measured between 2014 and 2024, reaching 0.71 in absolute terms and 32.4 in percentage terms. The rate fell from 2.19 to 1.48 over this period, according to TurkStat.
The question is simple: Why did Turkey experience the steepest decline in fertility rates in Europe over this 10-year period?
But the answer is not simple. It is multifaceted.
Limitations of the total fertility rate
Firstly, experts point to the limitations of the total fertility rate (TFR). Dr Selin Köksal from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine told Euronews Health, TFR is essentially a snapshot as it captures births occurring in a given year. But TFR cannot tell us how many children people will ultimately have over their lifetimes.
“This matters because the defining feature of contemporary fertility is postponement, meaning people are delaying childbearing, not necessarily forgoing it altogether,” she said.
Köksal instead refers to the completed cohort fertility rate, which tracks the average number of children women have had by the end of their reproductive years, around age 45. TurkStat does not release it. According to her calculations based on surveys, completed cohort fertility in Turkey remains above 2.1, which is still above the frequently cited replacement threshold.
This, she believes, suggests that “the picture is considerably less alarming than period TFR figures imply.”
Deepening financial crisis
However, TFR is still useful for tracking trends over time, and this sharp decline deserves attention, according to Selin Köksal.
“This trajectory closely mirrors Turkey's deepening financial crisis, compounded by the pandemic and a severe decline in purchasing power driven by inflation and soaring housing costs,” she said.
“Under these conditions, it is fair to expect people to either postpone parenthood until times feel more economically stable, or abandon their intentions altogether.”
Postponement alone is not the full story
Dr Hande Inanc from Brandeis University also stated that the recent decline is likely driven by a combination of delayed parenthood (the tempo) and reduced progression to third or higher-order births (the parity).
“Postponement alone does not necessarily imply fewer children overall. Women can theoretically ‘catch up’ and have the same number of children at later ages. However, the roughly 0.5 decline in TFR over six years cannot be explained by timing shifts alone,” she told Euronews Health.
Fewer families having a third child
Inanc points to two main reasons: First, fewer families are having three children. This reflects both changing preferences—such as a growing norm around a two-child ideal and a stronger emphasis on ‘quality over quantity’, as well as structural constraints.
“High inflation, housing constraints, workplace environments that are not family-friendly (particularly for women), and limited access to affordable, high-quality childcare all increase the cost of having larger families,” she said.
Long-term trend, but not uniquely alarming
“In most European countries, the demographic transition lasted more than a century, whereas in Türkiye it was delayed and unfolded over a much shorter period,” professor Mehmet Ali Eryurt from Hacettepe University told Euronews Health.
Turkey’s TFR trend since 1960 has generally moved in parallel with the global average. However, the EU and major European economies have consistently recorded significantly lower rates than Turkey, according to World Bank data.
“Turkey is undergoing a fertility transition that Europe went through much earlier, not experiencing anything uniquely alarming,” Köksal told Euronews Health.
Urbanisation, education and women’s employment
Experts talking to Euronews Health attribute this long-term downward trend in Turkey to rapid urbanisation, rising female educational attainment, increased female labour force participation and changing social norms, noting that the pattern is similar to that seen in many European countries.
However, “it would be a mistake to attribute this rapid decline to structural factors like rising female education or labour force participation,” Köksal warned.
“These are long-run drivers that explain Turkey's gradual transition from 3–4 to 2 children per woman over several decades, not a sharp shift within five or six years.”
Financial incentives not sustainable
Professor İsmet Koc, director of the Institute of Population Studies at Hacettepe University, linked the rapid decline in fertility to a process that began during the COVID-19 pandemic and continued through the earthquakes and ongoing economic uncertainty.
He also connected this phenomenon to the inadequacy of the financial incentives, childcare facilities, and measures such as part-time work rights for mothers introduced under the new family and population programme.
He noted that policies predominantly based on financial incentives may temporarily increase fertility by bringing forward planned births, but such increases are unlikely to be sustainable.
Cost of raising children is rising quickly
Eryurt pointed to another economic factor behind the recent sharp decline. “The costs of raising children have risen rapidly. Education expenses in particular have increased significantly, especially with the expansion of private schooling.
Families are now required to spend substantial resources at every stage of education, beginning with preschool,” he said.
According to Turkey’s Ministry of National Education, the share of students enrolled in private schools has steadily increased. It rose from 1.74 percent in 2002 and 4.13 percent in 2014 to 8.72 percent in 2024.
Growing concerns about the future
Eryurt, like other experts, cited rising housing and living costs as well as broader economic uncertainty.
He also pointed to growing concerns about the future. In his view, these factors “appear to be making young, single individuals and childless couples more hesitant to marry and have children, thereby accelerating the decline in fertility”.
Experts also emphasised that all these factors contribute to a rise in the age at first marriage and first birth. The mean age of women at the birth of their first child increased from 25.5 in 2014 to 27.3 in 2024.
Divorce-to-marriage ratio rising
Over the same period, the mean age at first marriage among women rose from 24.2 to 25.8, according to TurkStat.
“When young adults face employment insecurity, high inflation, and housing unaffordability, they tend to postpone marriage and family formation,” Inanc said.
“Timing of first births is closely tied to the timing of marriage, as childbearing outside marriage remains socially stigmatised,” she added.
The ratio of divorces to marriages has also been gradually rising in Turkey. Between 2015 and 2025, it increased by 13 percentage points, from 22 percent to 35 percent.
“Divorce rates continue to rise rapidly, which further shortens the time available for childbearing,” Eryurt said.
Fewer men now meet women’s standards
Dr Onur Altındağ from Bentley University points to another aspect that draws less attention. “Men are falling behind women in education and in the human capital that today’s economy rewards,” he told Euronews Health.
In Turkey, women overtook men in university attainment starting with cohorts born in the mid-1980s, and the gap has widened rapidly since then. Among recent cohorts, about 52 percent of women hold a university degree compared to 40 percent of men.
“Women of childbearing age now have more education, stronger labour market skills, and often have more successful careers than their male peers. This growing gap reshapes the marriage market,” Altındağ said.
“The pool of men who meet women’s expectations as a husband and father is shrinking. The result is later marriages, no marriages, and later or no children,” he added.
Shift in values and norms
Eryurt also pointed to shifts in values and social norms, including the perceived value of children.
“Concepts that were once dominant, such as family orientation, altruism and sacrifice, have increasingly given way to individualism, personal development, freedom and self-actualisation,” he said.
Turkey is still above the EU average
But as of 2023, Turkey’s fertility rate (1.51) remains above the EU average of 1.38. Bulgaria (1.81) records the highest rate, while Malta (1.06) has the lowest.
