The policy could lead to health gains that build over time, with tens of thousands of additional healthy years of life. By 2075, the policy could deliver around 88,000 extra healthy life years compared with no new law.
Smoking among young people in England could fall to extremely low levels within a generation and lead to major health gains, according to new research examining the impact of the UK’s smokefree generation law.
Last year, the United Kingdom’s government proposedan anti-tobacco bill to "break the cycle of addiction." The legislation, which has not become law yet, would permanently ban the sale of tobacco products to anyone born on or after 1 January 2009, with the legal age of sale increasing by one year, every year.
The study found that smoking prevalence among 12 to 30-year-olds could drop below 5 percent by the late 2040s, decades earlier than expected without the policy.
Using detailed modelling, researchers at the University of Nottingham projected how smoking prevalence among 12 to 30-year-olds in England could change over the coming decades if the law is implemented, compared with a scenario in which it is not.
A report published last year by Wales’ public health agency found that more than one in ten deaths among people aged over 35 between 2020 and 2022 were due to smoking.
However, researchers say progress may not be the same for everyone, with men and people in lower-income communities likely to reach the milestone later unless support is targeted.
The policy could lead to health gains that build over time, with tens of thousands of additional healthy years of life. By 2075, the policy could deliver around 88,000 extra healthy life years compared with no new law.
The biggest health gains are expected in disadvantaged communities where smoking is most common, with around 30 percent of the additional healthy years of life projected to occur in the most disadvantaged 20 percent of neighbourhoods.
The study suggested that tailored communication and greater targeted investment in enforcement may reduce both absolute and relative inequalities.
“This modelling suggests the smokefree generation law could help stop young people from ever starting to smoke, accelerating progress towards a tobacco-free future,” said Nathan Davies, lead author of the study and researcher in the School of Medicine at the University of Nottingham.
“But how the policy is implemented will matter. Stronger enforcement, communication and stop smoking support in communities where smoking remains most common could help ensure the benefits are shared across the country and achieved more rapidly”.
“Protect future generations from a lifetime of deadly, costly addiction”
The results are notable because they remain positive even under more cautious assumptions about how strongly the policy will reduce smoking uptake.
The UK government expects the law could reduce the number of young people starting to smoke by about 30 per cent each year, while the University of Nottingham researchers assumed a much smaller reduction of around 5 percent per year.
Even with this lower estimate, the study still found the policy could lead to major long-term health benefits. If the larger reductions expected by the Government happen, smoking among young people could fall below 5 percent as early as the 2030s.
Health organisations welcomed the findings but said implementation would be crucial.
“This study highlights what a landmark step the age of sale legislation will be in helping protect future generations from a lifetime of deadly, costly addiction,” said Alizée Froguel, prevention policy manager at Cancer Research UK.
The project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).
The proposed law is still moving through the UK parliament. If introduced, it would have some of the toughest anti-smoking measures in the world alongside countries such as the Maldives, which has banned tobacco sales to anyone born on or after 1 January 2007.
New Zealand, which was the first country to attempt to ban tobacco sales to future generations, scrapped the plan in 2023.
