Two-thirds of the single family homes on Hawaii's most populous island have no hurricane protections.
ADVERTISEMENTJan Pappas and Ronald Yasuda are preparing their 1960s-era home for a hurricane. They have had the roof fastened to the walls with metal plates and nails so high winds won't blow it away.
Their motivation? Global warming fueling disasters around the planet.
“It’s happening right now, every place in the world," says Pappas, who installed the 'hurricane clips' after seeing extreme weather hitting other parts of the world. "How are we to expect that it’s not going to happen here to us?”
Hawaii's homes are not ready for the tropical cyclones that could hit it
Many of Hawaii's homes are even more vulnerable than theirs.
Two-thirds of the single-family homes on Oahu, an island of 1 million people that's home to Honolulu, have no hurricane protections.
That lack of preparedness is unnerving residents as they prepare for the possibility of a 1-2 year weather punch: the increased odds of a tropical cyclone that come with any El Nino year combined with climate-fueled ocean warming. This could mean bigger and more frequent tropical storms on Hawaii's islands.
Does El Nino cause more storms?
El Nino, a naturally occurring warming of equatorial waters in the central and eastern Pacific, affects weather worldwide.
Already this year, Hawaii has felt its wrath as a tropical storm passed south of the Big Island last month.
On top of that, warming oceans heated by climate change could strengthen tropical storms and nudge them farther north, potentially putting them on a collision course with Hawaii.
Are other parts of the US better prepared than Hawaii?
Hawaii's experience stands in contrast to the US territory of Guam. There, stronger building codes and years of rebuilding after powerful storms means most homes are now made of sturdy concrete.
In May, a Category 4 typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (241 kph) slammed into the island. The storm destroyed some older homes, but the concrete ones generally emerged unscathed.
Has Hawaii learnt from previous hurricanes?
Many of Hawaii's single-family homes are single-wall construction, a style phased out only in the 1970s, says Gary Chock, a licensed structural engineer.
Hawaii's temperate climate means homes don't need to trap heat, so most don't have an additional wall to contain insulation. Structurally, their foundations aren't often properly anchored to the ground. Their lower cost made them Hawaii's preferred construction style for decades.
They proved particularly vulnerable to powerful winds during Hurricane Iwa, which just missed Kauai in 1982, and Hurricane Iniki, which slammed directly into Kauai a decade later.
“The entire roof of the home might be decapitated by wind,” Chock says of single-wall homes hit by Iniki. “And the whole roof, in one piece, would just fly off the walls, and the rest of the structure would fall apart thereafter.”
Iniki damaged or destroyed 41% of Kauai's 15,200 homes with 130- to 160-mph (209- to 257-kph) winds. Seven people were killed, and 100 were injured.
After Iwa, new homes had to have their roofs secured to their walls. After Iniki, new construction had to strap upper stories to lower stories and connect the foundation to the first floor.
Chock says a home built to code today would withstand a Category 3 hurricane, with winds up to 130 mph (209 kph), if a structural engineer supervised construction.
ADVERTISEMENTHow can homeowners prepare their homes for hurricanes?
Homes built on mountain ridges and in valleys must be able to withstand higher winds. Homes built before the building code changes aren't required to have these features, and few homeowners have retrofitted with hurricane clips like Pappas and Yasuda.
64 per cent of single-family homes - or 125,000 houses - on Oahu lack any hurricane protections, according to a 2019 study by Honolulu.
Bob Fenton, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator for the region that includes both Hawaii and Guam, says these homes are more easily damaged by Category 3 or 4 tropical cyclones.
The state is looking at some non-profit and volunteer programs that could help fortify homes, says James Barros, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency administrator.
"But it starts with the individual house - taking a look at, "How vulnerable is my house to winds?’” he says.
ADVERTISEMENTWhat can homeowners in Hawaii learn from better-prepared Guam?
Guam already faces ferocious storms with some regularity.
The US territory nearly 4,000 miles (6,400 kilometers) west of Hawaii tends to have more - and more powerful - tropical cyclones because its sea surface temperatures are higher.
The ocean around Guam is also warmer year-round, so cyclones can form any time. Such storms are called typhoons west of the international dateline and hurricanes to the east.
Since the early 1990s, four typhoons with sustained winds of at least 150 mph (241 kph) have directly hit Guam, including Typhoon Mawar in May. By contrast, Hawaii has only had one such powerful storm, Iniki.
Guam has become more resilient after each storm, often by rebuilding with concrete capable of withstanding Category 4 and 5 typhoons.
ADVERTISEMENTThose homes are more expensive to build, and they trap heat and radiate warmth at night when people need to sleep - a problem that could worsen with global warming.
To cool their homes, many people on Guam paint their roofs white to deflect the sun or plant rooftop gardens, says Kyle Mandapat, a spokesperson for University of Guam Sea Grant. He has even heard of people installing rooftop sprinklers and using drains to catch the water to irrigate their gardens.
More concrete leads to more air conditioning, which can also be expensive. It's all a lot, but "people still see that as more of something they can deal with as opposed to the prospect of their house blowing away,” Mandapat said.
How much are hurricane-resistant homes?
Concrete homes are rare in Hawaii, but new homes are being built with pricey hurricane-resistant features.
Daryl Takamiya, a past president of the Building Industry Association of Hawaii, says the hurricane-resistant windows his company is installing at a suburban Honolulu development add $25,000-30,000 (€22,700-27,300) to the cost of each new home. A hurricane-resistant garage door adds another $1,600 (€1,450). The homes are being built to withstand winds of up to 130 mph (209 kph).
ADVERTISEMENT“There’s always a drawback, right?" Takamiya said. “I mean, you can build homes that are basically bunkers, but you’re going to pay for it.”
The high cost of Hawaii homes is already driving an exodus of residents to other states, including many Native Hawaiians. Family homes at Takamiya's suburban development start at $940,000 (€856,000) just under the Oahu median price of $1.03 million (€990,000).
Yet these hurricane-resistant homes may become more necessary in Hawaii as the planet warms.
John Bravender, the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Honolulu, pointed to a 2014 study showing that as oceans have warmed, tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere have been drifting farther north, and those in the southern hemisphere have been moving further south.
For Hawaii, that means hurricanes that would have previously passed south of the Big Island may now be more likely to hit the island chain. And unlike Tropical Storm Calvin, which lost its hurricane status as it approached the Big Island last month, they may maintain strength.
ADVERTISEMENT“So far, cross our fingers, nothing has really happened,” said Yasuda, the homeowner, referring to the many close calls Oahu has had. “I don’t know how long we can hope that nothing happens, you know?”
