10 July is a little-known traditional farmers’ weather day that predicts the coming weeks’ conditions and possible further heat. So why do meteorologists also regard the so-called Seven Brothers Day as fairly reliable?
The 10th of July is regarded – especially in Austria, much like Seven Sleepers Day in June elsewhere – as particularly significant for the weather in the weeks ahead.
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The traditional folk saying goes: "If Seven Brothers Day is a rainy day, it will go on raining for another seven weeks." As there is currently hardly any sign of rainfall anywhere in Europe, the following saying is more likely to apply: "If the seven brothers bask in the sun, seven weeks of bliss are to come."
However, seeing the current extremely sunny conditions with a tendency towards a heatwave as a "blessing" is becoming difficult not only for people working in agriculture. The drought is now being felt in many places.
Many people are currently yearning instead for cooler temperatures, such as those that are at least providing pleasantly mild summer weather in northern Germany.
Animals stressed by the heat
It is not only the fiaker horses in Vienna that find it too hot. As Swiss broadcaster SRF reports, cows already suffer from heat stress from 16 degrees Celsius, pigs from 20 degrees. And as stressed animals eat less, milk and meat yields fall during a heatwave. Many farms in Switzerland have adapted – the animals now usually stay in the cooler barn rather than out on pasture. In the long term, farmers want to rely on breeds that cope better with the heat.
While the mercury in Vienna was expected to stay just below the 30°C mark, 33°C in the shade was forecast for Zurich on Friday, and 34°C for Geneva – possibly followed by thunderstorms.
What is Seven Brothers Day?
In the Catholic Church, Seven Brothers Day is the feast day in memory of the seven sons of Saint Felicitas. According to tradition, the patron saint of women and mothers was beheaded in Rome around the year 166 together with her sons Alexander, Felix, Januarius, Martialis, Philippus, Silvanus and Vitalis because they refused to renounce their Christian faith.
According to popular belief, Felicitas had to witness the deaths of her sons before she herself was decapitated. They are regarded as early Christian martyrs.
Why is the forecast considered reliable?
Apparently, even experts do not consider the farmers' rule for Seven Brothers Day entirely far-fetched. This is because the so‑called jet stream in the upper atmosphere – at around 8 kilometres above the Earth – usually settles into a stable position over central Europe between late June and early July. Its winds then tend to steer the weather for weeks on end.
As weather expert Dominik Jung explains in the Frankfurter Rundschau (FR): "At the beginning of July, a large-scale weather pattern often becomes established that stays with us for weeks. And the signs are clearly pointing to warmth."
According to meteorologist Jung, this is because low-pressure systems coming in from the Atlantic are effectively pushed away and pass well to the north of us.
Heat less humid than at the end of June
According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the most intense heat in the coming days will still be in France. But, as the DWD writes, "more and more regions in Germany will also come to 'enjoy' 30 degrees or more". In the far south-west of Germany, temperatures of 35 or even 36 degrees will be reached.
According to the Kachelmannwetter service, the heatwave affects not only Switzerland but also Freiburg im Breisgau.
Over the coming days, at least initially, the air should not be as humid as it was during the heatwave at the end of June. Nevertheless, the German Weather Service speaks of "severe heat stress, especially in the south-west", to which the warmer nights also contribute – a problem that particularly affects urban areas.
