A new poll projects Armenian Premier Nikol Pashinyan’s party could win a large parliamentary majority, as Russia intensifies its campaign to counter Yerevan's pro-West realignment, warning of a Ukraine scenario.
The latest survey ahead of Armenia’s decisive elections on 7 June has projected that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party could win nearly 65% of decided voters, suggesting it could be headed for a landslide victory and a considerable majority in the future parliament.
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The Breavis poll measured voting intentions between 5 and 11 May among 1,551 respondents, showing that Civil Contract would win a comfortable lead over the fragmented opposition — some of which are actively supported by Russia — with no party rising above 12%.
If the vote next Sunday confirms the poll's projections, Armenians would give Pashinyan a decisive mandate to solidify the South Caucasus country's strategic realignment towards a pro-Western path, setting it on a collision course with the Kremlin and cementing the historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan over Karabakh, further advancing regional stability and cooperation.
The agreement was signed at the White House last year with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, ending decades of conflict between the two countries.
The Breavis poll also signals a recalibration of Yerevan's national strategy and a further pivot towards the West after decades in Russia’s post-Soviet orbit.
In recent weeks, Moscow has continuously escalated its pressure on Yerevan, including critical trade bans, warnings of suspension from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) — a Moscow-led bloc of five former Soviet states that functions as a single integrated market and free-trade zone —and Russian President Vladimir Putin drawing parallels between Armenia and Ukraine, days after his US counterpart, Donald Trump, gave Pashinyan his "complete and total endorsement".
The release of the new poll also coincides with Russia recalling its ambassador to Armenia “for consultations” over Yerevan's decision to hasten its path to the EU.
"The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia, SP Kopyrkin, has been recalled to Moscow for consultations in connection with steps taken by the Armenian leadership toward rapprochement with the European Union," Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
A day earlier, the Kremlin continued its onslaught of economic warnings and measures, announcing that it would impose “temporary restrictions” on Armenian exports of certain fruits and vegetables, adding to the recent bans on Armenian mineral water, wines and brandy, after threatening to end its cheap gas and oil supplies, all vital to the country.
Armenia, a country of some 3 million, imported more than 80% of its gas from Russia last year.
Also on Friday, EAEU leaders issued a joint statement warning Armenia that its plans to join the EU pose “serious risks” to the economic security of all member countries.
During their summit in Astana, the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan called on Yerevan to hold a national referendum as soon as possible on Armenia’s choice between the EU and the Moscow-led bloc.
At the summit, Putin also repeated an earlier parallel he made between Ukraine and Armenia, telling the gathered press at the EAEU summit in Astana that "the crisis in Ukraine began at one point with Ukraine’s attempts to join the EU."
While the EAEU statement mentioned only Armenia's pro-EU course, it came just one day after Trump gave Pashinyan his "complete and total endorsement" for reelection, describing him as "a great friend and leader" who is making Armenia "strong, wealthy and very secure."
Moscow has mounted an intense and widespread disinformation campaign in Armenia to support the pro-Russian opposition candidates, including covert efforts to undermine Pashinyan.
Citing Western intelligence officials, Reuters reported on Saturday that Moscow plans to transport tens of thousands of Armenian voters from Russia to influence the elections.