The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) says global sea surface temperatures also reflect a “likely transition” toward El Niño conditions.
Following an “exceptionally wet” February that triggered floods across the Mediterranean, Europe has witnessed its second-warmest March on record.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
New data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), found that March 2026 was globally the fourth-warmest on record – with surface air temperature hitting 1.48℃ above pre-industrial levels.
C3S also confirmed that March had its second-warmest global sea surface temperature on record, reflecting a “likely transition” toward El Niño conditions.
Which parts of Europe warmed the most?
The average temperature over European land for March 2026 was the warmest at 5.88℃. This is a 2.27℃ increase compared to the 1991-2020 average for March, but doesn’t beat last year’s record-shattering temperature.
Almost the whole of Europe experienced warmer-than-average temperatures, with the most pronounced conditions occurring over northwest Russia, northern Fennoscandia, and the Baltic States.
“Slightly cooler-than-average conditions were seen over Türkiye, southern Europe and most of Iceland,” C3S found.
Much of mainland Europe also saw drier-than-average conditions. In contrast, Iceland, the northern UK, much of Scandinavia, many regions in the Mediterranean and the Caucasus were wetter than average. Heavy precipitation, often associated with the transit of storms, led to flooding in several nations.
Outside of Europe, warmer-than-average temperatures were recorded across the US, where a prolonged heatwave sweltered the western part of the country. Much of the Arctic, northeast Russia and parts of Antarctica also experienced warmer-than-average temperatures.
Unusually cold conditions spread across Alaska, the majority of Canada, as well as southern Greenland and northwest Siberia.
According to C3S, the average sea surface temperature (SST) for March 2026 was 20.97℃, the second-highest value on record for the month. The warmest March on record was in 2024, during the last El Niño event.
However, experts predict a transition from neutral to El Niño is now brewing for the second half of the year. Some meteorologists predict that a typical El Niño event tends to cause a temporary 0.1-0.2℃ increase in the global mean temperature.
“The daily SST steadily increased through March and is approaching the record values set in 2024,” C3S states.
‘A climate system under pressure’
“Each figure is striking on its own – together, they paint a picture of a climate system under sustained and accelerating pressure,” says Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S at ECMWF.
“Reliable data, produced operationally from billions of measurements across satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations, is no longer a scientific luxury. It is the essential foundation for any serious climate adaptation and policy response.”
A shift away from polluting fossil fuels
C3S’ data has reignited calls to move away from fossil fuels, which are the leading cause of global warming.
According to the UN, coal, oil and gas account for around 68 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. GHG emissions blanket the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat – resulting in increased surface air temperature.
“Amidst a fossil fuel crisis, it’s a reminder too that the solutions to the climate crisis align with those to wean us off reliance on volatile fossil fuels,” says Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
“The only solution to climate change is to cut emissions to net zero, and the tools to achieve that are the same renewable technologies which shift our energy system towards reliance on free and abundant wind and sun, and away from expensive imported oil and gas from the Middle East.”
