While Democrats elected a young presbyterian seminarian as their candidate, Republicans need to endure a nasty run-off campaign until May. The outcome of this race may well rattle Donald Trump's power in Washington.
The United States' 2026 primary season kicked off with two high-profile races in Texas that could make the Lone Star State the main event of the midterm elections in November.
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The results provided some the first concrete voter sentiment at the ballot box this year as President Donald Trump’s second term approaches the halfway mark. In November, Republicans will be defending a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, and they have tried to bolster their efforts by redrawing congressional maps in several Republican-controlled states, including Texas.
Yet given recent special elections across the country, aggressive reciprocal gerrymandering in blue states and polls that indicate a massive shift in voter preference, Democrats are largely favoured to take back the House – which would effectively block President Trump’s political agenda from passing through Congress.
At the same time, a Democratic takeover of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, remains a long shot. But a win in Texas would take the Democrats dramatically closer to that objective.
On Tuesday, after a bruising campaign, long-serving incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn was forced into a run-off against the more ardently Trumpist Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, extending a costly and bitter fight until May 26 with neither candidate hitting 50% of the vote.
“This is a nightmare scenario for Republicans,” Jon Taylor, a political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, told Texas Public Radio. “For the next two and a half months the Democratic nominee can fundraise and campaign and enjoy watching the bloodbath between Cornyn and Paxton."
The two candidates dislike each other so much that the campaign leading up to the runoff could resemble a “civil war” within the Texas Republican Party, he added.
Cornyn, a traditional conservative stalwart who is serving his fourth term in the US Senate, was framed by Paxton during the campaign as a relic of the George W. Bush era, out of step with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party.
On the other hand, the Cornyn campaign relentlessly pointed to Paxton’s political scandals and his nasty divorce fight from his wife of 38 years.
Trump didn’t endorse either candidate during the primary, but the results may raise pressure on him to take a side. Republicans in Washington have expressed concern that Paxton, who has well-documented political baggage, may be a weaker candidate in the general election.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Cornyn said that “judgement day is coming for Ken Paxton”.
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” he declared.
Paxton, meanwhile, told his supporters that “We just sent a message loud and clear to Washington: We are not going to go quietly, and we are not going to let [Cornyn] buy the seat”, alluding to the fact that he was heavily outspent by his opponent.
According to AdImpact, a company that tracks political advertising, $64 million has been spent on pro-Cornyn ads so far, but only $3.6 million on Paxton ads. Expect these numbers to go up substantially during the run-off.
Together with the spending on the Democratic side (more than $20 million, or €17 million), the Texas Senate primary has already become the most expensive in US history.
Speaking of Democrats: Whoever ends up being the Republican nominee will face off against Democratic state Representative James Talarico, who beat left-wing Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett after a blockbuster primary.
Talarico, a presbyterian seminarian preaching a blend of Christianity and economic populism, is trying to appeal to moderate voters and born-again Christians – a crucial part of the electorate that traditionally favours Republicans.
For months, Talarico adopted a grind-it-out mentality, showing up in Republican strongholds that had not been visited by a Democratic candidate in years.
Many observers believe that Talarico has a real shot at winning the Senate seat, especially if Paxton beats Cornyn in May.
“We are confident in this movement we’ve built together,” Talarico told his audience in Austin before the Associated Press called the race for him.
“We are not just trying to win an election, we are trying to fundamentally change our politics. And it is working,” he added, pointing to turnout data around young people and first-time voters.
“This is proof that there is something is happening in Texas,” he concluded.
His followers are ready to believe him. There is a surge in Democratic excitement to end a decades-long losing streak in the state.
The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Texas was 1988 – the year before Talarico was born – and the last Democrat to win statewide was in 1994. That could change this November, as Talarico has a strong crossover appeal.
Democrats cannot win in Texas without a few Republicans an Independents switching sides. Talarico knows that.
"The people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope," he said in his election night speech. "And a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing."