The fall of "El Mencho" opens a new scenario for the CJNG: a decentralised cartel with a criminal franchise model and international presence that could survive the absence of its leader.
Mexico's top drug-trafficking outfit Jalisco Cartel - New Generation (CJNG) could survive the death of its founder Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes through a decentralised business model that operates like a franchise across multiple criminal markets, according to organised crime experts.
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Oseguera, known as "El Mencho", was killed on 22 February during a Mexican military operation in Tapalpa in Jalisco state, with US intelligence support.
He died from wounds sustained in a firefight while being flown to Mexico City, according to Mexico's Defence Ministry.
The operation killed four cartel members at the scene, with three others, including Oseguera and two bodyguards, dying later from their injuries. Two people were arrested and authorities seized armoured vehicles and rocket launchers.
At least 70 people died in the operation and its aftermath, including 25 National Guard troops killed in six separate attacks, according to Mexican authorities. Around 30 suspected cartel members were killed.
The killing triggered roadblocks and arson attacks across more than half a dozen states, with suspected gang members torching buses, vehicles and petrol stations. Airlines cancelled flights to Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, and schools suspended classes.
Despite the fallout, questions immediately arose on the cartel's future after its decapitation.
What we know about Jalisco Cartel's structure
The cartel's structure differs fundamentally from traditional drug trafficking organisations by diversifying beyond narcotics into extortion, route control and local market management, said Carlos Malamud, senior researcher at the Madrid-based Elcano Royal Institute.
"Unlike in the past, where traditional cartels were focused on drug trafficking, today they have diversified their activity and participate in practically all illicit markets," Malamud told Euronews.
The CJNG operates through a franchise system that allows local gangs to use its name and methods in exchange for profit-sharing, rather than sending its own members to every territory.
"The cartel realised that a more decentralised activity was more effective," Malamud said.
This operational architecture suggests the group anticipated succession planning through collegial leadership that could prevent internal fragmentation, according to Malamud.
Succession uncertainty
Rubén Oseguera González, known as "El Menchito", was the natural successor as Oseguera's son.
However, he was extradited to the United States in 2020 and faces drug trafficking and firearms charges in Washington, keeping him from direct operational control.
Several other family members are in custody. US agents arrested Oseguera's son-in-law Cristian Gutiérrez-Ochoa in California in November 2024.
Mexican authorities arrested his brother Abraham Oseguera in Jalisco in April 2024 and another brother Antonio in 2022. His wife Rosalinda González Valencia was arrested in Mexico on money laundering charges in November 2021.
The absence of direct heirs in Mexico could trigger violence between the cartel's regional factions, Malamud said.
"Alternative leaders will want to impose themselves violently," he added.
On the same day as Oseguera's killing, security forces tracked and killed a senior CJNG figure known as "El Tuli", described by authorities as Oseguera's right-hand man and top financial operator.
Mexican authorities said he orchestrated roadblocks and offered a bounty of 20,000 pesos (€1,100) for each soldier killed.
The cartel uses drones, armoured vehicles known as "monsters" in Mexico, and AI to establish control in areas with weak government presence.
"They use cutting-edge technology: drones, artificial intelligence ... they have the resources to hire engineers and specialists," Malamud said.
The CJNG has been one of the most aggressive cartels in attacking military forces, and pioneered launching explosives from drones and installing mines.
The organisation occupies "gaps that the state does not occupy", he explained.
European expansion
Mexican cartels have subcontracted operations to criminal organisations in southeastern Europe to expand further into the continent, Malamud said.
"Drug trafficking activity is affecting European societies. It is enough to see what is happening in ports like Rotterdam or Antwerp, which increasingly resemble the Wild West," he said.
The degradation of border security in the Netherlands and Belgium shows the CJNG has successfully expanded operations across the Atlantic, turning organised crime into a global challenge, according to Malamud.
Mexican authorities tracked Oseguera through intelligence on one of his romantic partners. On 20 February, a trusted associate of the partner was tracked transporting her to a rural property in Tapalpa where Oseguera was believed to be staying.
Collaboration between the Mexican government and Washington on intelligence proved "extremely effective" in locating Oseguera, Malamud said.
However, Europe now faces technical and social challenges as the cartel's franchise model extends beyond North America, he concluded.