US President Donald Trump believes Ukraine should hold elections, having said Kyiv has been “using war not to hold the election”. If a vote were held today, who would win?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he is ready to hold presidential elections within 90 days if Western partners help ensure security for the vote, responding to his US counterpart Donald Trump's calls for Ukraine to hold a vote despite ongoing martial law.
Trump said he sees it as an “important time” for Ukraine to hold an election, accusing Kyiv of deliberately postponing the vote.
“They (Ukraine) are using war not to hold an election,” Trump said in an interview with Politico.
Zelenskyy was quick to respond, saying, “I personally have the will and readiness for this."
According to existing laws, a ballot cannot legally take place under martial law imposed due to Russia’s full-scale invasion almost four years ago.
Now, Ukraine’s president has urged lawmakers to draft legislative proposals that would allow for changes to that rule.
While Ukraine’s lawmakers are working on the legal solution, Zelenskyy asked Ukraine’s western partners including the US to help ensure the security of the vote.
“I'm asking now, and stating this openly, for the US to help me. Together with our European partners, we can ensure the security needed to hold elections. If that happens, Ukraine will be ready to conduct elections in the next 60 to 90 days," Zelenskyy stated.
Do Ukrainians trust Zelenskyy?
In 2019 Zelenskyy scored a landslide victory with over 73% of votes in the second round versus 24% for the former President Petro Poroshenko.
Shortly after, Ukraine held an early parliamentary election, Zelenskyy’s party Servant of the People won an outright majority of seats in the Verkhovna Rada.
Some 80% of Ukrainians trusted Zelenskyy in 2019, with a strong showing in both the presidential and parliamentary elections that year.
This number dropped to 37% by early February 2022, before bouncing back to record-breaking 90% when Russia started its full invasion of Ukraine.
Almost four years later, a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) earlier this autumn showed that 60% of Ukrainians continue to support Zelenskyy.
Who would run and who would win?
According to a different poll by Info Sapiens published on Tuesday, 20.3% of Ukrainians would vote for Zelenskyy in the next presidential elections.
Although this represents a sea change from the 73% of the vote in 2019, Zelenskyy remains the most popular candidate and would win the next presidential election, according to this poll.
The second most popular choice and the only person who could come close to this level of support is former commander-in-chief of the armed forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, General Zaluzhnyi earned himself a stellar reputation when Russia embarked on its all-out war against Ukraine.
General Zaluzhnyi was in charge of Ukraine’s defences, including the battle for Kyiv in early 2022 and subsequent counter-offensives until May 2024.
According to the latest poll by Info Sapiens, Zaluzhnyi ranks second after Zelenskyy with around 19% of support.
But Ukraine’s top general does not plan to run any time soon, he said. Amid regular rumours and speculations, Zaluzhnyi noted in early October that he has no plans to launch a political party and does not support holding elections while the war continues.
"I do not support holding elections during wartime. Anyone who receives an offer — allegedly on my behalf — to join any initiative through any organisation should report it to law enforcement," Zaluzhnyi said in a post on Facebook.
"I am not creating any headquarters or political parties, and I have no affiliation with any political force," he explained.
The third person on the list of potential presidential candidates is the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence HUR Kyrylo Budanov, although with just over 5%.
Ukraine’s spy chief has never expressed any political ambitions and is widely seen as irreplaceable at his current job, given HUR’s unprecedented operations in Ukraine and abroad.
The popularity of military figures like Zaluzhnyi and Budanov can be read as a sign of the importance Ukrainian voters place on the country’s defence and future military strategy amid Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Do Ukrainians want elections?
According to Ukraine's constitution, the next election is possible only after the end of martial law, and the vast majority of Ukrainians do not want to rush into a vote before the war ends.
Only 12% of Ukrainians believe that the election should take place amid Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
A higher number of Ukrainians, 22%, support elections after a ceasefire with security guarantees, which Ukraine has not received and has not been promised yet.
Around 63% believe elections should happen only after the war ends, according to the most recent survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
Zelenskyy said he would not seek re-election once the war ended.
"If we finish (the) war with (the) Russians, I'm ready not to go for the second term because it's not my goal — elections," he said in September.
"I wanted very much in a very difficult period of time to be with my country, help my country. My goal is to finish the war."