North Korea on Friday commemorated the 10th anniversary of former leader Kim Jong Il's death with calls for greater public loyalty toward his son and current leader Kim Jong Un, who is struggling to navigate the country out of deepening pandemic-related hardships.
In his 10 years at the helm of North Korea since his father's death, Kim Jong Un, 37, has secured the same absolute power enjoyed by Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather and state founder. Despite massive economic shocks caused by draconian anti-virus measures and long-dormant diplomacy with the United States, North Korea shows no signs of political instability and few outside experts question Kim’s grip on power.
But the long-term stability of Kim Jong Un's rule could still be questioned if he fails to work out steps to address the ongoing difficulties and improve public livelihoods, some observers say.
On every previous death anniversary, Kim Jong Un paid respects at a mausoleum where the embalmed body of Kim Jong Il lies in state along with that of Kim Il Sung. Kim Jong Un also convened national meetings honouring his father during some previous milestone anniversaries such as the first and fifth ones.
He was expected to do the same this year but North Korea’s state media did not immediately report on any public activities by Kim Jong Un on Friday morning. State-run newspapers published articles venerating Kim Jong Il and calling for greater unity behind Kim Jong Un, while state TV aired propaganda songs and documentary films on the late leader.
“Great leader and comrade Kim Jong Il is always with us ... and he is the eternal ‘suryong’ and sun of ‘juche (self-reliance)’ of our party and revolution,” the North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in an editorial, referring to a revered title reserved for North Korean leaders.
Without mentioning the current difficulties, the paper said that “We should make our every effort to bolster our single-minded unity ... by standing united behind respected comrade Kim Jong Un."
On Thursday, ordinary citizens offered flowers and paid homage before giant bronze statues of Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung at Pyongyang’s Mansu Hill.
This year’s death anniversary comes as Kim Jong Un grapples with the toughest moment of his rule because of the coronavirus pandemic, persistent U.N. sanctions and mismanagement.
North Korea’s trade with China, its biggest trading partner and an economic pipeline, shrank by about 80% last year before it plunged again by two-thirds in the first nine months of this year. Last year, the North’s economy suffered its biggest contraction since 1997 while its grain production also dropped to its lowest level since Kim took office, according to South Korean government estimates.
Kim refuses to return to talks with Washington and Seoul as he calls for building a stronger, self-reliant economy and retains tough virus restrictions including two years of border shutdowns. Analysts say Kim fears that his country’s broken public health care infrastructure could not afford a major virus outbreak though he maintains a questionable claim that North Korea is coronavirus-free.
“Unless North Korea accepts offers for denuclearisation talks with the U.S., it cannot stay away from powerful international sanctions. Without international cooperation, North Korea must continue to seal off its borders due to concerns about the spread of COVID-19. And this is a North Korean dilemma,” analyst Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said in a recent analysis piece.
The North’s advancing nuclear arsenal is the core of Kim’s rule, and he’s called it “a powerful treasured sword” that ensures peace in the face of U.S. military threats.
During his 10-year rule, North Korea has performed 62 rounds of ballistic missile tests, which are banned by multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions, according to Seoul’s Unification Ministry. The number is compared to an estimated nine rounds of tests during Kim Il Sung’s 46-year rule and 22 rounds during Kim Jong Il’s 17-year rule. Four of the North’s six nuclear tests and its three intercontinental ballistic missile launches all occurred under Kim Jong Un’s rule.
Kim’s torrid run of weapons tests in 2016-17 invited tougher U.N. sanctions and led him to exchange threats of destruction and crude insults with then-President Donald Trump. The two sat down for three rounds of landmark summit talks on Kim’s nuclear weapons in 2018-19, but their diplomacy eventually collapsed due to wrangling over the sanctions. Kim has since threatened to enlarge his nuclear arsenal and build more sophisticated weapons systems.
“North Korea marked the 10-year memorial of Kim Jong Il with public ceremonies and state propaganda. More significant will be Kim Jong Un’s attempt, after a decade in power, to map out a credible path for post-pandemic diplomacy and economic recovery,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.