Analysts say a far-right victory in France would not be able to force through a 'maverick” candidate or rewrite economic policy, though the political manoeuvring risks undermining the ECB’s reputation.
Fresh speculation around who could potentially replace Christine Lagarde if she were to resign has reignited a politically charged question in Paris and Brussels: could France’s far right gain leverage over Europe’s central bank if it wins power in 2027?
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Economists interviewed by Euronews say the answer is largely no. However, they argue the bigger risk is reputational.
After reports on Wednesday claimed ECB chief Christine Lagarde could step down before her mandate expires in 2027, an ECB spokesperson told Euronews that no decision has been made and that its president “remains focused on her mission”.
The news was first reported by the Financial Times, which cited a source familiar with the matter and suggested the timing could be linked to France’s presidential race in April 2027.
With French President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third term, an earlier handover at the ECB could allow him to future-proof the position against a potential far-right and Eurosceptic government.
A politically-engineered early departure?
According to Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, the episode shows politicians can be “tempted to bend the rules to ensure that they have their preferred candidate in charge of the central bank,” which he warned “undermines the ECB’s image as one of the world’s most independent central banks”.
Even if the timing changes, it “won't make any difference to monetary policy”, he added, saying it is “not a good look for politicians to be trying to engineer an early departure”.
In Paris, concerns have been mounting over the rise of the far-right National Rally (RN), with Marine Le Pen and her protégé Jordan Bardella polling strongly — a prospect that has prompted anxiety in some circles about the appointment of key EU posts, including the ECB presidency.
But Kenningham said those fears are being overstated. Even if politics is influencing the timing, he argued, it does not translate into political control of the central bank.
Kenningham told Euronews that “due to the appointment process, even a hypothetical RN government in France would not be able to force through the appointment of a maverick candidate”, adding that concerns about RN influence “look overdone — not to say slightly paranoid”.
ECB's wider decision-making structure is a safeguard
That is partly because the head of the eurozone’s central bank is only one part of a wider decision-making structure.
The ECB president is appointed by the European Council, made up of the bloc’s 27 member states, by qualified majority.
For economists, this process is precisely why fears of an RN takeover at the ECB are misplaced: it may shape the politics around the succession, they say, but it cannot single-handedly determine the outcome.
Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management and an ECB expert, echoed that assessment, calling it unrealistic to imagine France acting alone.
“It’s always going to be a compromise with Germany and other countries,” he told Euronews, arguing that it is “overstating the importance of France” to think a future government could force the choice of Lagarde's successor.
Ducrozet was even more categorical about the prospect of an extremist appointment.
“I don’t think that France can force a decision and nominate some kind of extremist unorthodox central banker. I think the probability is zero of something like this happening.”
Ducrozet also warned that trying to game the timetable would send the wrong signal, potentially fuelling an increasingly populist sentiment across Europe.
"The best way to defend a central bank is to accept the rules of democracy. And if that means Jordan Bardella weighing in on the discussion in 2027, then that's democracy,” he said.
RN hits out at Emmanuel Macron for "political manoeuvring"
On the National Rally side, the rumours are being used to attack Emmanuel Macron directly.
RN MEP Julie Rechagneux told Euronews that the succession chatter says "a great deal about Emmanuel Macron’s view of European action,” arguing that “any attempt at personalisation or political manoeuvring around these appointments weakens France’s credibility and the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union”.
Rechagneux said her party condemns "the accelerated pace of discretionary appointments” and argued that “public trust requires that appointments be transparent, based on competence, and aligned with the general interest”.
She warned the rush “gives the impression of a headlong flight forward,” portraying it as an attempt “to lock down the senior civil service for the long term”.
The debate comes as France’s central bank governor, François Villeroy de Galhau, announced his own early resignation last week.
On Wednesday, whilst being questioned by the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, he dismissed the Lagarde reports as a "rumour," saying it “doesn’t seem [like] information."
During the hearing, RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy mocked what he called an “epidemic of resignations,” blaming what he described as “Emmanuel Macron, a very problematic pathogen”.
Euronews reached out to Jean-Philippe Tanguy and the National Rally for comment, but did not hear back at the time of publication.
