While the news cycle obsesses over tactical maps, your reporter is looking at the people. US President Donald Trump has called the Iran war "a short-term excursion" but if he is wrong, Europe could deal with a refugee crisis of a significant magnitude.
History shows that when a home becomes a battlefield, people move toward safety and existing ties. So, where could they go?
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
Currently, roughly 4 million Iranians live abroad, and most of them migrated during or after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
In Europe, Germany leads with over 300,000 Iranians, followed by Sweden and the UK, each home to around 100,000.
In 2025, only 8,000 Iranians sought asylum in Europe - less than 1% of all applications. But with a population of 90 million, the EU Asylum Agency warns that even partial instability could trigger a massive refugee crisis.
However, the agency also calls this scenario "highly speculative," stressing it is too early for firm predictions.
But you see, this is not only about Iran, but also about the whole region.
Iran is already one of the world’s largest refugee hosts, home to 1.6 million of them and many more with an undocumented status. Most of them come from Afghanistan and Iraq and are now caught in another war zone.
And the ripple effect is spreading. According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), over 660,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon because of the conflict.
Right now, no one knows yet how or when the war will end. But for Europe, the consequences seem no longer distant.
Watch the Euronews video in the player above for the full story.