Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could soon be designated as a terrorist organisation in the European Union after France and Spain, the two key hold-outs, signalled a change of mind.
France and Spain have signalled their support to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, injecting fresh impetus into a symbolic step that the European Union has long been loath to take.
The idea of blacklisting the IRGC came back to the table after the violent crackdown on Iranian protesters. But France and Spain, two large member states, voiced hesitation, casting serious doubts on whether the necessary unanimity could be reached.
The tide turned on Wednesday, one day before foreign affairs ministers are set to meet in Brussels to discuss the hot-button issue.
"France supports the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the European list of terrorist organisations," said the Elysée.
Sources from the Spanish Foreign Ministry confirmed Madrid would vote in favour.
The IRGC stands accused of orchestrating Iran's violent repression of protests, supplying weapons to Russia, launching ballistic missiles at Israel, and maintaining close ties with armed allies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen's Houthis.
The United States, Canada and Australia have already designated the IRGC as a terrorist organisation. Germany and the Netherlands have repeatedly urged the bloc to follow suit.
Earlier this week, Italy, which was originally reluctant, shifted towards approval after new data highlighted the scale of Iran's brutal repression of street protests.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, which verifies each death through a network of activists inside Iran, at least 5,777 Iranians have been killed. (An Internet blackout has complicated the gathering of information.)
"The brutality of what we see has made ministers and capitals reconsider their positions," said a senior diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It's an important signal towards the Iranian government and an expression of support for the Iranian diaspora, who have called for this for a long time."
Designating the IRGC as a terrorist organisation would imply an asset freeze, a prohibition to provide funds and a travel ban on all its members, many of whom are already subject to those restrictions under the EU's sanctions regime.
It would also be a symbolic repudiation of a paramilitary organisation that is effectively a state branch under the tight grip of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The IRGC is estimated to operate between 125,00 and 190,000 troops, with army, navy and air units.
The French-Spanish change of view could help convince the remaining sceptics and usher in the necessary majority for the designation.
The bloc's terrorist list currently covers 22 groups, such as Hamas, Hezbollah's Military Wing and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
This article has been updated with more information.