More than 200,000 hectares of European forests could be disturbed annually by 2100, according to a new study.
Forest damage in Europe is projected to rise by 20 per cent by 2100 compared to recent decades, even if the world sticks to ambitious climate measures.
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A new international study published in the journal Science, with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, warns that wildfires, storms and bark beetle outbreaks – all of which are fuelled by climate change – are putting crucial carbon sources at risk.
Even in a scenario with global warming limited to roughly 2℃, researchers found that annually disturbed forest area could rise from 180,000 to roughly 216,000 hectares per year by the end of the century compared to the “already unprecedented levels of disturbance” from 1986 to 2020.
However, in a scenario where fossil fuel use continues to increase – pushing temperatures even higher – almost 370,000 hectares could be disturbed every year by the end of the century.
Europe’s forests are under threat
The study warns that forests in Southern and Western Europe will be particularly affected and will undergo the ‘strongest changes’ in forest disturbance.
While Northern Europe is expected to be less severely impacted overall, researchers highlight that hotspots of future forest damage are still likely to emerge.
Last year, more than 1,800 forest fires were declared in the EU, emitting around 38 million tonnes of CO2. Scientists say many of these fires occurred where climate anomalies showed much drier and warmer than average conditions.
Summer 2025 was particularly bad for Portugal and Spain, which both witnessed record-breaking wildfires that accounted for more than two-thirds of EU devastation.
According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA), these deadly blazes were around 40 times more likely due to climate change.
Why are forests so important in the fight against climate change?
Europe is among the most forested regions of the world, with around 40 per cent of its land area covered by forests.
Not only do these areas host most of the terrestrial species of animals, plants, and fungi native to the continent – they are also a vital carbon sink that absorbs CO2 from the air and helps fight climate change.
Forests also play an important role in providing clean water, reducing the risk of flooding, and enhancing food security.
However, Christopher Reyer, a scientist at PIK and co-author of the study, says Europe’s forests are likely to absorb less carbon in the future.
“If forests take up less carbon, or potentially even release more than they absorb, this increases pressure on other sectors such as transport and agriculture to reduce their emissions more rapidly,” he adds.
“At the same time, forest management needs to focus more strongly on building resilient forests.”
Is the EU planting enough trees?
In 2010, the EU launched its three billion trees initiative, a milestone that could remove a staggering 15 million tonnes of CO2 from the air per year by 2050.
However, according to an online tool set up by the Commission, less than 38 million trees have been planted in the EU so far.
It means that the EU has only completed around 1.26 per cent of its goal six years into the initiative. Unless planting rates increase dramatically, achieving three billion new trees by 2030 will be unlikely.
A Commission official tells Euronews Green that the initiative is a “voluntary commitment” which aims to mobilise organisations and individuals active in tree planting to report their work – and not a mandatory commitment.
It is planning to launch an award next year to recognise “innovative and impactful tree-planting” in hopes of making large gains towards the goal.
