The crisis in the Middle East is driving up oil prices, affecting both energy and food costs. Experts agree that the Iran crisis will significantly impact food prices in Europe.
The joint US–Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s response have pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude frequently rising above $100. Experts say this will affect not only energy prices but also food prices.
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The impact could be particularly strong in Europe, leading to higher food costs and a rising cost of living.
So, how will the crisis in the Middle East affect food prices across Europe? Which countries are more vulnerable and why?
Experts talking to Euronews Business point out that the crisis is expected to push global food prices higher through multiple channels.
"Global, as well as European, food prices are expected to rise because of the conflict due to the disruption of fertiliser and energy supply, as well as rising shipping costs,” Zsolt Darvas, senior fellow at Bruegel, told Euronews Business.
He emphasised that a large share of the world’s fertiliser and oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut down due to the war.
Higher fertiliser costs translate directly into higher agricultural production costs.
Oil and LNG prices have already increased significantly, and higher fuel costs affect the entire food chain, raising production costs and shipment.
How will the situation evolve?
Significance of fertiliser
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that global fertilizer prices are projected to average 15–20 percent higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists.
Maximo Torero, the FAO chief economist, noted that rising fertiliser and energy costs increase production expenses for farmers, and lower input application could result in reduced crop yields later in the year, tightening global grain supplies.
The FAO Food Price Index has already begun to rise again after a period of relative stability.
“While European natural gas prices surged 50–75 percent in the first weeks of the crisis, and higher energy costs increase costs across agricultural supply chains—including farm operations, irrigation, transport, storage, and food processing—these pressures will eventually transmit to consumer food prices,” Torero told Euronews Business.
The FAO cautions that if farmers cut fertiliser use due to high costs, future harvests may shrink, leading to tighter grain supplies and a surge in food prices later in 2026.
Three main channels driving food inflation across Europe
The FAO identifies three primary transmission channels through which the crisis could drive food inflation in Europe. Torero explained that energy costs are the first pressure point.
The Persian Gulf is a critical supplier of refined fuels, and disruption to those supplies has pushed diesel and jet fuel prices higher, increasing transportation and logistics costs throughout the food supply chain.
Higher natural gas prices also directly affect European fertiliser production, which was already constrained by high energy costs before the conflict.
Fertiliser prices compound the problem. Europe is not directly dependent on Gulf fertiliser imports in large volumes, but markets are global.
When Gulf urea exports were disrupted, prices surged worldwide, and European farmers face higher input costs as a result.
Because nitrogen fertiliser production relies heavily on natural gas, the spike in European gas prices has further amplified domestic production costs, creating a double pressure on farmers.
The third channel is biofuel demand.
Higher oil prices increase the profitability of ethanol and biodiesel production, prompting governments and fuel blenders to turn to biofuels as alternatives and raising demand for feedstocks such as maize, soybean oil and palm oil.
This feedback loop can divert crops from food production, tighten global grain supplies and push food prices higher across Europe and beyond.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages in the EU reached unprecedented levels, rising above 19%.
Which European countries are most exposed, and why?
The FAO states that Gulf refineries provided an estimated 60% of Europe's jet fuel and 20% of its diesel in 2025.
"This is the clearest evidence of exposure. European countries with major aviation hubs and those reliant on diesel for transport and agriculture would be most affected," Torero continued.
In terms of refined fuel imports, the most exposed countries are the Netherlands, home to Europe's largest refining and petrochemical cluster at Rotterdam, which is deeply integrated with Gulf crude and refined product markets, and Belgium, a major refining and logistics hub centred in Antwerp.
Germany, Europe's largest diesel consumer, faces significant exposure, as do France, Italy and Spain, which together account for substantial aviation, agricultural and industrial diesel demand.
Natural gas dependency adds a further layer of vulnerability. Roughly one-fifth of global LNG exports originate in the Gulf and must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Italy has historically been a major importer of Qatari LNG, while Spain, France and the Netherlands all have significant LNG import infrastructure with considerable exposure to Gulf suppliers.
The Netherlands and Belgium, as home to Europe's largest petrochemical clusters, face additional risk from any disruption to Gulf-derived naphtha and other petrochemical feedstocks.
Some effects will be felt later
Maria Castroviejo, senior analyst Rabobank, noted thatEuropean fertiliser users probably will only feel the pain from the autumn since they are already supplied for the current needs.
“From fertiliser to final product, there is quite some transformation going on. And transport. Both require energy. That all eventually results in higher food prices, although as we saw back in 2022 there is a lag in time between energy prices increase and food prices at the supermarket go up,” she told Euronews Business
Oxford Economics’s policy brief also expects the conflict to have a more significant adverse impact on Europe than on the US due to the energy market shock.
In 2025, annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages in the EU was 3.3%. It ranged from 0.3% in Cyprus to 7% in Estonia. Turkey is an outlier, with food inflation rising by over 30% annually.
