Chocolate prices rose 18% across the EU in 2025 — the highest increase of any food item — as drought in West Africa drove up cocoa costs. But the impact has varied widely across Europe.
Overall consumer prices rose by 2.5% in the EU in 2025, based on the annual average rate of change.
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The increase was slightly higher for food and non-alcoholic beverages at 3.3%. Among all food items, chocolate recorded the highest rise at 17.9% across the EU according to Eurostat.
So why did chocolate prices increase the most across Europe? And which countries saw the sharpest rises?
Chocolate prices rose significantly more than many other key food products. For example, beef and veal ranked third in the EU with a 10% increase.
That is about 8 percentage points (pp) lower. Inflation for eggs and butter was around 8%, roughly 10 pp below chocolate.
Within EU countries, the average annual inflation in consumer prices for chocolate in 2025 ranges from 6.6% in Slovakia to 32.6% in Poland.
When other European countries are included, the range extends from 1.6% in Albania to 44% in Turkey.
Turkey’s figure is not directly comparable, as it reflects the category "chocolate, cocoa and cocoa-based food products" at an annual rate of change as of January 2026.
Turkey is an outlier not only in food inflation but also in overall inflation across Europe.
Estonia (31.5%), Lithuania (31.5%), Romania (26.1%), Latvia (25.9%) and Serbia (25.4%) also recorded rises of over 25% in chocolate prices.
Inflation was also above the EU average in Sweden, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Greece, North Macedonia, Spain, Finland, Czechia, the Netherlands and Germany, ranging between 18% and 22.5%.
Cyprus, Luxembourg, Italy, Kosovo and Switzerland are among the countries with the lowest chocolate inflation, all below 12%.
Among other major EU economies, the increase was 14% in France. Belgium, a significant centre for the chocolate industry saw a 12.3% rise.
In the UK, chocolate prices rose by 16.2% in 2025 according to ONS.
Why did chocolate prices rise the most?
**“**Chocolate prices in Europe have risen sharply in 2025 mainly because of an unprecedented surge in global cocoa prices driven by severe supply disruptions,” Emiliano Magrini, economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told Euronews Business.
Dryness in West Africa
He noted that cocoa production is highly concentrated in a few West African countries, particularly Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for the bulk of global supply.
In 2023-24, output in both countries fell dramatically due to adverse weather conditions — especially prolonged dryness — and the spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease.
“These shocks generated a large global production deficit and pushed inventories to historically low levels, leaving markets extremely exposed to further disruptions and driving cocoa prices to record highs,” Magrini added.
Cocoa prices surged
John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank’s Prospect Group, pointed out that cocoa is a key input in chocolate production, accounting for about 10–20% of total costs.
“Cocoa prices surged from an average of $3.28/kg (€2.8) in 2023 to $7.33/kg in 2024 and $7.80/kg (€6.7) in 2025 — an increase of more than 120 percent between 2023 and 2024, the largest among the 70 primary commodities monitored by the World Bank and the largest in the history of the cocoa market,” he told Euronews Business.
He stated that such an increase reflected weather-related production shortfalls in West Africa (especially Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for nearly two thirds of global cocoa supplies).
“This sharp rise of cocoa prices pushed up chocolate production costs and, ultimately, retail prices despite cocoa’s relatively modest cost share,” Baffes added.
Why does chocolate inflation vary widely?
Emiliano Magrini emphasized thatdifferences in chocolate inflation mainly reflect variations in domestic market structure and the degree of integration of national chocolate industries.
Countries with large, well‑established chocolate manufacturing sectors — such as Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands (and Switzerland) — tend to show lower price increases than the EU average.
“In these markets, large and vertically integrated firms are better able to absorb higher cocoa costs by adjusting margins, using long‑term contracts, or spreading costs across export markets,” he said.
Prices in Central and Eastern European
FAO economist noted that countries with smaller chocolate industries or greater reliance on imports tend to experience a stronger pass‑through of global cocoa price shocks to retail prices.
In several Central and Eastern European member states, chocolate prices may respond more directly to increases in input costs, probably because domestic value chains are shorter and offer fewer buffers.
“Differences in labour costs, energy prices, the prices of other key ingredients such as milk and sugar, exchange rates, and the intensity of retail competition further contribute to cross‑country variation," Magrini added.
In addition to income levels and country conditions and cocoa content in the chocolate, Baffes pointed to industry structure.
This reflects vertical integration, the mix of multinational and domestic firms, branding, and distribution networks influence how costs are passed through.
“Some firms absorb part of cocoa price increases to protect market share, while others pass them on more fully and quickly,” he said.
