Caught between economic uncertainty and political pressure, the Federal Reserve will decide this week whether to begin cutting interest rates after nine months — and by how much.
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Investors across the globe are looking at the Federal Reserve as its officials gather on Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on interest rates. The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December 2024.
The so-called federal funds rate impacts interest rates for consumers and businesses in the world's biggest economy, meaning a series of cuts could boost spending and investment.
For now, the US economy is nonetheless mired in uncertainty. Hiring has slowed sharply, while inflation remains stubbornly high.
One key question for the Fed is: Should they be more concerned about people who are out of work and struggling to find jobs, or should they focus more on the struggles many Americans face in keeping up with rising costs for groceries and other items? The Fed's mandate from Congress requires it to seek both stable prices and full employment.
A 'tough time' for the Fed to decide
For now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have signalled the Fed is more concerned about weaker hiring, a key reason investors expect the central bank to reduce its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday to about 4.1%.
Still, stubbornly high inflation may force them to proceed slowly and limit how many reductions they make. The central bank will also release its quarterly economic projections on Wednesday, and economists project they will show that policymakers expect one or two additional cuts this year, plus several more next year.
Ellen Meade, an economics professor at Duke University and former senior economist at the Fed, said it's a stark contrast to the early pandemic, when it was clear the Fed had to rapidly reduce rates to boost the economy. And when inflation surged in 2021 and 2022, it was also a straightforward call for the Fed, which moved quickly to raise borrowing costs to combat higher prices.
But now, "it's a tough time," Meade said. "It would be a tough time, even if the politics and the whole thing weren't going on the way they are. Some people would want to cut, some people would not want to cut."
How political pressure could taint monetary policy decisions
Amid all the economic uncertainty, US President Donald Trump is applying unprecedented political pressure on the Fed, demanding sharply lower rates, seeking to fire Cook, and insulting Powell, whom he has called a "numbskull", "fool", and "moron."
Loretta Mester, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, said that Fed officials won't let the criticisms sway their decisions on policy. Still, the attacks are unfortunate, she said, because they threaten to undermine the Fed's credibility with the public.
"Added to their list of the difficulty of making policy because of how the economy is performing, they also have to contend with the fact that there may be some of the public that's sceptical about how they've gone about making their decisions," she said.
David Andolfatto, an economics professor at the University of Miami and former top economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that presidents have pressured Fed chairs before, but never as personally or publicly.
"What's unusual about this is the level of open disrespect and just childishness," Andolfatto said. "I mean, this is just beyond the pale."
How is the Fed deciding on rates?
There are typically 12 officials who vote on the Fed's policies at each meeting — the seven members of the Fed's board of governors, as well as five of the 12 regional bank presidents, who vote on a rotating basis.
One of the Fed governors, Lisa Cook, may or may not appear as she fights for her position in court after the US President announced that she was fired. The president's nominee to replace her is Stephen Miran, a White House official.
If a court rules that Cook can be fired, or Miran isn't approved in time, then just 11 officials will vote on Wednesday. Either way, there ought to be enough votes to approve a quarter-point cut, but there could be an unusual amount of division.
Miran, if he is on the board, and Governor Michelle Bowman may dissent in opposition to a quarter-point reduction in favour of a steeper half-point cut.
There could be additional dissenting votes in the other direction, potentially from regional bank presidents who might oppose any cuts at all. Beth Hammack, president of the Fed's Cleveland branch, and Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, have both expressed concern that inflation has topped the Fed's 2% target for more than four years and is still elevated. If either votes against a cut, it would be the first time there were dissents in both directions from a Fed decision since 2019.
"This degree of division is unusual, but the circumstances are unusual, too," Andolfatto said. "This is a situation central banks really don't like: The combination of inflationary pressure and labour market weakness."
Hiring has slowed in recent months, with employers shedding 13,000 jobs in June and adding just 22,000 in August, the government reported earlier this month. And last week a preliminary report from the US Labor Department showed that companies added far fewer jobs in the year ending in March than previously estimated.
At the same time, inflation picked up a bit last month and remains above the Fed's 2% target. According to the consumer price index, core prices — excluding food and energy — rose 3.1% in August compared with a year earlier..
With inflation still elevated, the Fed may have to proceed slowly with any further cuts, which would likely further frustrate the Trump White House.
"When you get to turning points, people can reasonably disagree about when to go," Meade said.
