“Methane is the quickest brake we have on warming this decade. Before ministers agree to ease off it, I'd ask them to look very carefully at what it actually costs.”
The EU has proposed to delay new rules to cut planet-warming emissions from methane, saying a delay would “relax” pressure on energy markets and therefore cut oil and gas prices.
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EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen, under pressure from France and industry lobbyists, suggested the rules be pushed back by one year. He held talks with energy ministers from the bloc’s 27 nations earlier this week
Methane is responsible for about 30 per cent of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, meaning it made a significant contribution to the record-breaking heatwaves which gripped Europe this summer and led to at least 35,000 excess deaths.
What is the new methane regulation, will it really push up oil and gas prices and how harmful are methane emissions?
How is the EU trying to cut methane emissions and why is industry opposing it?
Since 2024, EU member states have been required to measure, report and check methane emissions and ensure mitigation efforts, such as detecting and repairing methane leaks.
The new regulation, which is at threat of being delayed, will require energy importers to ensure that imported fossil energy meets the same standards. “The rule industry wants postponed is aimed at gas that leaks, is vented, or is burned off, all of which is saleable gas being lost,” according to the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG) which argues that the regulation would make more, rather than less, gas available. “The International Energy Agency puts the volume that could be captured and sold at around 200 billion cubic metres a year. A requirement on producers to find and stop those losses adds gas to the market over time. Postponing the rule postpones that.”
The regulation had been due to apply from 1 January 2027. Some industry groups and member states are calling for it to be delayed by three years, but the EU has suggested a one-year delay.
Critics argue that if exporters are unable to comply with the new rules, they could stay away from Europe, narrowing the bloc’s sources of gas at a critical time and pushing up prices. Eurogas, and 20 other companies and organisations, argue that it should be delayed because “key accreditation, verification and certification frameworks are still not fully in place, compliance solutions remain under development, and significant uncertainty [remains]”.
Will the new methane regulation push up gas bills?
“The argument for [the delay] is that these rules will push up the price of gas. They won’t. Showing how the gas you import is measured costs a tiny fraction of what that gas sells for, and even if every penny of it were passed on, households would barely notice,” says Sir David King, Chair of CCAG and former UK Chief Scientific Adviser.
CCAG puts the cost of meeting the new methane regulation at about €0.07 per MMBtu, or 0.3 per cent of the current gas price, based on modelling by Rystad Energy for the Clean Air Task Force.
CCAG analysis shows: “Across the 76 billion cubic metres of American gas the EU bought last year that comes to roughly €190 million. If every cent were passed through to consumers it would add around €3 a year to a typical household gas bill. Sending a US cargo to Asia rather than Europe costs $3.50 (€3) per MMBtu more in shipping alone.”
“The rules also bring gas back onto the market that is at present simply leaking into the air.”
Are gas supplies in Europe really running low?
Data shows that Europe has enough gas to last through the winter, and this would be the case even with the methane regulation in place.
New analysis by Data Desk found: “While Central and Eastern European countries face minor immediate issues with Russian gas reliance, no identified supply constraints are severe enough to undermine the Methane Regulation in its current form.”
According to AFP news agency, gas storage levels average at around 70 per cent across the EU, albeit with significant differences between countries. In France for example tanks are 82 per cent full, while the rate is only 57 per cent in Germany.
Where in Europe is responsible for the most methane emissions?
According to the IEA’s Global Methane Tracker, around 55 per cent of the fossil fuel methane emissions that occur within Europe come from the oil and gas sector, mostly from downstream operations. 45 per cent come from coal mines, mainly in Poland and Ukraine.
Upstream oil and gas operations are responsible for the majority of emissions in Romania and the UK. Norway and the Netherlands have the lowest upstream intensities in the world, it says, while most other countries in the region perform near the global average.
Abandoned underground coal mines constitute a significant and overlooked source of methane emissions.
Methane gas is generated when organic matter turns to coal and is buried underground in these coal seams. When mining creates a route to the surface, much of the methane escapes. If it is not plugged, these emissions can continue for decades after a mine is abandoned.
Globally, the IEA estimates that abandoned coal mines emitted nearly 5 Mt of methane in 2024, and abandoned oil and gas wells released just over 3 Mt. Combined, these sources would be the world’s fourth-largest emitter of fossil fuel methane –- after China, the US and Russia, and ahead of Iran, Turkmenistan and India.
Since most emissions result from mines and wells that have recently been abandoned, timely action is critical, the IEA urges. Options include plugging and monitoring wells that are no longer in use, sealing abandoned coal mines, and directing methane flows for energy use.
In total, the energy sector – including oil, natural gas, coal and bioenergy – accounts for more than 35 per cent of methane emissions from human activity.
The agriculture and waste sectors are also major sources of methane emissions, but fossil fuel supply offers the greatest potential for immediate reductions in methane emissions, the IEA notes.
