Beaches, ports and, during extreme events, even the railway line that runs through the Cinque Terre National Park are at risk.
One of Italy’s most famous stretches of coastline is under increasing threat from sea level rise.
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The Cinque Terre National Park is a summer holiday hotspot in Liguria known for its colourful houses, fishing harbours and steep cliffsides threaded through with hiking trails.
But a new analysis suggests its villages could be at serious risk of flooding within the next 125 years.
The study highlights the vulnerability of beaches, docks, port areas, and tourism and transportation infrastructure.
Cinque Terre faces increasing flooding
The study by an international team of researchers analysed two of the most exposed areas of the Cinque Terre coastline, which are home to the villages of Monterosso and Vernazza.
Published in the science journal Remote Sensing, the research examined the possible coastal flooding scenarios by 2150, using the most recent climate projections from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
The scientists found that the areas under consideration "show a non-stationary sea level rise trend, confirming the increasing vulnerability of low-lying coastal stretches”.
The calculations showed that, by 2150, the relative sea level rise could be between 0.60 and 1.17 metres, according to study coordinators Marco Anzidei, Research Director at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), and Alessandro Bosman, senior researcher at the Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering (IGAG-CNR).
"Our work has highlighted that, in extreme events, the most sensitive areas are small beaches and low-lying port areas," they told Italian press.
But they added that in the most pessimistic climate scenario, the strongest storm surges could generate waves reaching over 13 metres, posing potential risks to the railway lines connecting the Cinque Terre.
Study urges adaptation to sea level rise
Given these worrying scenarios, the study also outlines suggestions for land-use planning and coastal risk reduction.
The starting point, the researchers urge, is targeted adaptation of locations, including “adjusting the heights of docks, improving drainage systems, and protecting infrastructure and tourism-related services”.
The Cinque Terre National Park has already begun developing a climate change adaptation plan.
One of the key measures is the maintenance and preservation of stone walls, which are essential structures for hydrogeological stability especially in the face of increasingly frequent and violent weather events, as well as the conservation of the historic agricultural landscape.
“Maintaining our cliffs and docks is a complex issue that requires a multidisciplinary approach, involving the scientific community, local stakeholders, communities and local institutions,” the president of the Cinque Terre National Park, Lorenzo Viviani, told local press.
