A member of France’s 1998 World Cup-winning team and the Italian defender who scored in the 2006 final shared their expectations with Euronews
In the run-up to the World Cup jointly hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, almost everyone is having a go at predicting the outcome.
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The Opta Analyst sports analysis site and media platform, which is built on the Opta sports statistics database, has also produced its customary preview. According to Opta’s supercomputer, Spain is the most likely winner of the World Cup at this first-ever 48-team tournament.
As the analysis points out, Argentina arrive at the World Cup as defending champions after the Albiceleste, led by Lionel Messi, won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, claiming their third world title.
Of the six South American entrants, the other heavyweight is record five-time world champions Brazil, who, under Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti – a record five-time Champions League winner at club level – will try to end their title drought, which stretches back to their last World Cup triumph in 2002.
Two-time champions Uruguay will also be there, although Uruguayans are generally given less of a chance of overall victory than their South American rivals.
One third of the participating nations, 16 teams, represent Europe. Among them, four-time world champions Germany, two-time winners France and one-time champions England and Spain could all conceivably win again (four-time champions Italy – unique among the eight previous winners – have failed to qualify).
Among these sides, Opta says a World Cup triumph for current European champions Spain would be the least surprising outcome, a conclusion the supercomputer bases on its having simulated the tournament 25,000 times.
Opta’s predictions
• The team with the greatest chance of winning the World Cup are Spain, who lift the trophy in 16.1% of the 25,000 simulations.
• Spain is followed by France (13%), England (11.2%) and Argentina (10.4%), meaning each of them wins the World Cup in more than 10% of the simulations.
• In 35.9% of the supercomputer simulations, the title goes to a nation that has never won the World Cup before (which gives hope, for example, to Portugal, fifth in the ranking with a 7% chance).
• Only Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%) have more than a 5% chance of winning the World Cup, alongside the teams already mentioned.
Spain’s chances in detail
A few more highlights from Opta’s predictions:
• Spain is the only team that is more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, doing so in 52.1% of simulations.
• La Roja have a 39% chance of reaching the semi-finals, and in 25.6% of simulations, they also make it to the final.
• Spain is given a 75.3% chance of winning their group (ahead of Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde), but even if they do not top it, they still have a 98.5% probability of progressing to the last 32, from where they reach the last 16 in 72.7% of simulations. (The computer similarly breaks down the probabilities for France, England and Argentina.)
As the figures from the 25,000 simulations already cited make clear, Opta has essentially reached the same conclusion that any reasonably knowledgeable fan would give to the question “who will win the World Cup?” without any number-crunching: a previous world champion.
According to the computer, a former champion is the likeliest winner
If we add the 1.7% assigned to Uruguay, which is 13th in Opta’s ranking, to the percentages already mentioned, the seven former world champions taking part have a combined 64.1% chance of winning the title, compared with 35.9% shared among the other 41 teams at the tournament.
It is also worth taking a look at those whom the computer rates least likely to win: according to Opta Analyst, 28 teams have less than a 1% chance of becoming world champions.
Among them, the computer gives Turkey the best chance at 0.9%, while at the very bottom are five sides with not even a tenth of a per cent: the DR Congo, Qatar, Cape Verde, Haiti and Curaçao are each given a literal 0% chance. The computer also places co-host Canada in this group in the 24th spot, giving them – somewhat surprisingly - the same as Austria's: a 0.5% chance of ultimate success, which is better than, for example, Sweden’s (0.4%) or the Czech Republic’s (0.3%) prospects.
The other two co-hosts have even less cause for embarrassment, according to the forecast. Although the United States (1.2%) and Mexico (1%) cannot realistically harbour dreams of glory, they still sit 18th and 20th, respectively, comfortably inside the top twenty.
Among those teams who, while not favourites, could still produce a standout performance, the computer gives 8th-ranked Netherlands a 3.6% chance, Norway (9th) 3.5%, Belgium (10th) 2.4%, Colombia (11th) 2.1%, 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Morocco (12th) 1.9%, and 2018 runners-up and 2022 bronze medallists Croatia (15th) a 1.6% chance of taking the title.
Talking to Euronews, former French world champion Robert Pirès said: "I believe in my team. We have a great squad. The collective is very good, inside, we have very good players. We have Dembele and Mbappe, Olise, Cherki. So after this, we need to put our rules on the field, like sacrifice, like discipline, respect for your opponent. I believe in Didier Deschamps, the manager, to send a great message for the group."
And former Italian world champion Marco Materazzi mused: "So if PSG was the favourite [in the Champions League] because they won last year, then maybe Argentina, because they won the last World Cup. But Portugal, Spain, they are very good and tough. Morocco too, maybe it is a big surprise."