Time is running out for EU powerhouses to change their ways, or risk missing legally-binding commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
It’s been six years since the EU first agreed to slash greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030 compared to pre-industrial levels. Now, time is ticking.
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The bloc-wide target, which became legally binding in 2021, is part of the EU’s longer-term plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Back in March, the European Council also adopted an interim target that requires all 27 member states to reduce their net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 per cent by 2040, compared to 1990.
However, from 2036 onwards, “high-quality international credits” may be used up to a limit of five per cent of 1990 EU net emissions to contribute towards the 2040 target. This will allow member states to buy credits generated by emissions-cutting projects in other countries and count those cuts as part of their own targets.
Critics argue the loophole risks delaying “real, ambitious cuts in the EU”. Sarah Heck of Climate Action Tracker tells Euronews Earth: “It’s a risky step backwards that undermines the principle that climate targets should drive real, domestic emission reductions.”
But are the EU’s biggest economies likely to fall at the first hurdle?
Has Germany undermined its emissions?
The EU’s emissions targets are bloc-wide, meaning that not every individual country needs to reduce emissions by exactly 55 per cent in order for it to be achieved. Many countries have set up their own national goal.
Germany – the EU’s biggest economy – went one step further, pledging to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65 per cent by 2030.
This is legally mandated by the Federal Climate Change Act, the country’s first major national climate law. In March, Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled a 67-point programme to address concerns that the target won’t be met.
This includes bolstering renewable energy by adding 12 gigawatts of onshore wind turbine capacity, implementing schemes to boost electric vehicle (EV) sales, as well as steps to protect forests and soil health.
Despite the country’s efforts, a new report from the Council of Experts on Climate Change found that Germany risks overshooting its CO2 emissions projections by up to 100 million metric tonnes. Greenhouse gas emissions remained virtually flat in 2025 as a decline in industry and energy sectors was offset by spikes in construction and transport.
“The land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector is no longer shown as a carbon sink in the projection data,” the Expert Council says. “Instead, it is shown as a source of emissions, a trend that is expected to continue until 2045 and beyond.”
Despite only achieving a 48 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases so far, Germany recently watered down a draft law that would require households to replace fossil-fuelled boilers with climate-friendly alternatives.
The Greens’ parliamentary leader Katherina Droege, whose party introduced the original law in 2023, called it “a complete abandonment of Germany's climate targets”.
France needs to move faster to reach emissions reduction goal
France has a slightly less ambitious goal, with a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 per cent by 2030.
According to energy think tank Ember, France was the biggest supplier of clean power in the EU in 2025 – with nuclear leading the way. Fossil fuels only generated 5.2 per cent of the country’s electricity last year, while a rise in wind and solar has helped drastically reduce its power sector emissions.
Data from NGO Citepa found that the downward trend in emissions is continuing, although at a “slow pace”. The estimate of the monthly greenhouse gas emissions barometer in April indicated a 1.5 per cent decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, following a 1.8 per cent decrease in 2024, and a 6.8 per cent reduction in 2023.
The reduction in domestic emissions has mainly been spearheaded by a slowdown of industrial activity, with manufacturing and construction sectors down by 3.4 per cent year-on-year.
However, to meet its 2030 emissions target, France must cut its emissions by 4.6 per cent each year, meaning it needs to move more than three times faster than its current speed.
It is mainly the transport sector that is holding France back, responsible for nearly one-third of national emissions. Emissions in this sector are only expected to have dropped by 1.4 per cent in 2025, compared to an annual target of five per cent.
To address the small drop in emissions, France has become increasingly focused on electrification. At the Santa Marta energy transition conference in April, France boldly unveiled a national roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
The plan commits to ending coal use by 2030, oil by 2045 and gas for energy by 2050. It consolidates existing measures – including a ban on gas boilers in new buildings from 2026 and a target for two-thirds of new cars to be electric by 2030 – while also reaffirming commitments to support the transition in other countries.
While the move was well received, it’s unclear whether such a late target will help the country achieve its 2030 target.
Italy still clings to polluting coal
Under the EU’s targets, Italy is required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43.7 per cent by 2030.
The country has experienced “notable growth” in the renewable energy sector, with data from Italy’s national Transmission System Operator Terna reporting that 41 per cent of its electricity consumption came from renewable sources in 2025. This was spearheaded by a huge rise in solar, which provided 14.5 per cent of its electricity mix.
However, the European Environment Agency (EEA) warns that “significant acceleration” in renewable energy is still needed to reach its emissions target. Despite this, Italy is still clinging to polluting fossil fuels – even as the war on Iran highlights the dangers of oil and gas dependency.
In April, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced plans to postpone the permanent shutdown of the country’s coal-powered plants until 2038, 13 years later than the initial deadline and eight years past its 2030 target.
Environmental groups and the centre-left opposition slammed the move, with Angelo Boneli, the leader of the Europa Verde green party, accusing the government of “climate neglect”.
A 2026 report by the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) warns that “critical issues” in Italy’s energy transition, the decarbonisation of transportation and the efficiency of production systems mean it is unlikely that Italy will meet its required 2030 emissions reduction target.
Spain could be the EU winner on emissions cuts
Spain is often viewed as one of the stronger-performing EU economies when it comes to the energy transition, with targets to cut emissions by 32 per cent by 2030.
Its renewable energy mix exceeds the EU average (30 per cent), with clean sources making up 75 per cent of its electricity mix in 2025. Over the last two decades, Spain’s power sector emissions have fallen by more than two-thirds, as solar and wind expansion have started to displace fossil fuels.
The country recently unveiled a €9 billion energy transition plan to make homes more energy efficient and promote communities sharing electricity. The project will also see near-free public transport being provided to low-income earners.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez says the green transition will only succeed if it is “fair”, warning that efforts towards climate neutrality risk slowing due to “denialist rhetoric”.
According to the European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO), Spain could exceed its target, reaching a 41.4 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, if it continues to implement policies to absorb carbon from the atmosphere and continues bolstering clean energy.
Why the Netherlands needs ‘more stringent measures’
While the Netherlands is often seen as a green country, data from the EEA show a “mixed bag of outcomes”.
Earlier this year, Amsterdam became the first capital city in the world to ban climate-damaging advertising in public spaces, stripping the streets of billboards promoting polluting fossil fuels and meat. This follows in the footsteps of several other Dutch cities that have enforced similar bans, such as Utrecht, The Hague, Zwolle, Delft and Nijmegen.
According to Ember, the Netherlands generates more solar per capita than any other country in Europe, with wind and solar alone generating 46 per cent of its electricity mix in 2025. While clean energy made up a 54 per cent share of the Netherlands’ electricity last year, it still relies heavily on fossil fuels, particularly gas.
The Netherlands has also been struggling with the impact of nitrogen emissions since the 2019 Council of State ruling that too much nitrogen was being emitted and that it was affecting natural areas.
Farming and business are not allowed to expand without the proper permits, which hampers the construction sector, particularly regarding housing, renewable energy infrastructure and defence projects.
It is therefore “extremely unlikely” that the Netherlands will reach the climate goal of a 55 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, according to a 2025 report by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
The report states that the rollout of large-scale sustainability projects in the country is “stagnant”, with delays to offshore windfarms providing less clean energy than originally projected.
“The number of potential policy pathways that would lead to a 55 per cent emissions reduction in 2030 (at least, without serious economic damages or societal resistance) is growing smaller and smaller,” the report warns.
“Additionally, there are hardly any emissions reductions in the pipeline for after 2030. It is therefore extremely important to take more stringent measures which would support a structural transition towards a climate-neutral Netherlands in the long run.”