Support for Warsaw mayor and presidential favorite Rafal Trzaskowski has remained steady since the official start of the campaign in January, as Law and Justice-endorsed candidate Karol Nawrocki has lost ground to the far-right candidate, Slawomir Mentzen.
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Poland’s political scene is heading for an uncertain future, with much at stake in the upcoming Presidential elections. Frontrunner from Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party Rafal Trzaskowski is currently in the lead, with an estimated 38.3% average in the polls.
Following Trzaskowski is the independent candidate Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by incumbent President Andrzej Duda’s Law and Justice party. Briefly in February, Nawrocki was in 3rd place in the polls, beat out by far-right Konfederacja candidate Slawomir Mentzen. Mentzen is especially popular with young voters and has experienced an uptick of support on social media, most notably TikTok.
Well behind the top three candidates is Marshall of the Sejm Szymon Holownia, whose centrist Third Way coalition won 14.5% of the vote in the 2023 parliamentary elections, allowing the current ruling coalition to secure a majority in parliament.
The two candidates of the left, Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg, are polling at an average of 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
The elections will be a critical moment for Poland’s current ruling coalition in Parliament which has struggled to enact reforms in the face of conservative opposition from incumbent President Andrzej Duda, who is currently serving his second term in office and is thus ineligible for re-election.
The results of the elections will thus determine the ability of the incumbent coalition government to take crucial decisions regarding key issues in the country: including social questions such as civil partnerships and abortion rights, but also migration and national defense.
The last Presidential elections resulted in a tight victory for Duda against current frontrunner Trzaskowski, and many expected the current elections to be a two-man race. However, Mentzen’s rise in the polls has transformed Poland’s political landscape, making him a competitive challenger to Nawrocki.
The first round of the presidential elections will be held on the 18th of May. Following their conclusion, the results will be published by the National Electoral Commission. If no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote, a second round will take place on June 1st. The victor will serve for a term of five years, after which they will be eligible to run for a second term. The President-elect will take office before a joint session of both the Sejm and the Senate on August 6.