The former Director General of the European Parliament, Klaus Welle, thinks that a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is the most likely short-term solution to the war in Ukraine.
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Klaus Welle made these comments during a conversation at the Martens Centre European Ideas Forum 2024 moderated by Euronews, where he also discussed the future of Europe, including US-EU relations, migration, social justice and misinformation.
On the war in Ukraine, he explained that the fate of territory currently occupied by Russia would in effect be frozen for the time being. "The most likely scenario is that a kind of cease fire will be agreed", he said.
"Ukraine will not agree to cede territory, but it will have to accept that for a time which is unknown this territory is under foreign control, under Russian control, and that to a certain extent is similar to the situation of West Germany and East Germany", Welle told the audience.
"West Germany was free, West Germany was democratic, but the East was occupied by the Soviet Union", the German politician explained. "But we never gave up the hope, the vision, the desire to see the country reunified. We had to wait 40 years until 1989".
Welle, who is chair of the Martens Centre's Academic Council, also made it clear that territory still under Kyiv's control would need to be strenuously protected under strong security guarantees.
Ukraine is calling on NATO to invite Kyiv to join NATO, providing Article 5 protections to areas still under Ukrainian control.
Welle explained that during the time of partition West Germany was safe: "we had American troops we had British troops, we had French troops." And he added : "I personally do not believe that it can be safe without the support also of foreign troops in its own territory. And I believe that's most likely going to be European troops".
French president Emmanuel Macron and Polish President Donald Tusk have started exploring the idea of European peacekeepers in Ukraine in the aftermath of any peace settlement.
US President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that Europe will need to do much more heavy lifting with regard to European security. European states are not expecting Trump to sanction the presence of US troops into Ukraine as part of any future settlement.
" Americans are focusing more and more on China. And I believe also they expect with some justification that Europeans take more responsibility for the security on their own continent. And I think that's what we have to do", he told Euronews Europe Conversation.