The Iran war has exposed the fragility of global fossil fuel supply chains. Now dozens of countries across Asia and Africa are turning to nuclear power as their answer.
The Iran war's global energy shock is pushing nations in Asia and Africa to boost nuclear power generation and accelerating atomic energy plans in countries that have never had it.
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Asia, where most Middle Eastern oil and gas was headed, was hit first and hardest by disruptions to shipping routes — swiftly followed by Africa. The US and Europe are also feeling the pinch as the conflict drives up energy costs.
Countries with nuclear plants are increasing output as they scramble for short-term supplies, while non-nuclear nations are fast-tracking long-term atomic plans to guard against future fossil fuel shocks.
Nuclear power is no quick fix. Developing atomic energy can take decades, especially for newcomers. But long-term commitments made now will likely lock it into countries' future energy mixes, said Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Hard-hit Asia advances on nuclear
In Asia, the war is pushing South Korea to increase nuclear output, while Taiwan is debating restarting mothballed reactors. In Africa, Kenya, Rwanda and South Africa have all affirmed support for future reactor builds.
Nuclear power harnesses the energy released when an atom's nucleus — such as uranium — splits in a process called fission. Unlike fossil fuels, it does not release carbon dioxide. But it creates potentially dangerous radioactive waste, one reason many countries remain cautious.
The war has accelerated a global "nuclear renaissance," said Rachel Bronson of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, as countries seek an alternative to the risks of fossil fuel markets.
Some 31 countries use nuclear power, which provides about 10% of global electricity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Another 40 nations are either considering the technology or preparing to build a plant.
In Asia, where energy triage ranges from increased coal use to purchases of Russian crude, countries with nuclear plants are trying to squeeze more from existing reactors.
South Korea is ramping up generation and speeding maintenance at five offline reactors, with restarts planned in May.
Taiwan and Japan are reversing policies that shuttered nuclear sites after the 2011 Fukushima meltdown, triggered when an earthquake and tsunami cut power to the reactors' cooling systems.
Taiwan is considering the years-long process of restarting two reactors — requiring meticulous inspections, safety checks and control system verifications.
In Japan, since the war began, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has signed a $40 billion (€35bn) reactor deal with the US, a nuclear fuel recycling agreement with France and promised Indonesia nuclear cooperation.
Japan restarted the world's largest nuclear plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, in January.
Renewables make more sense than nuclear for energy affordability and security, according to Michiyo Miyamoto of the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
But historically high electricity costs, compounded by the current crisis, are swinging Japanese public opinion toward nuclear, she said.
In Bangladesh, the government is racing to bring online new reactors built by Russia's state-owned Rosatom, hoping they will supply the national grid with 300 megawatts by this summer and ease pressure from gas shortfalls.
Vietnam signed a deal with Moscow in March for two Russian-designed reactors.
The Philippines, which recently declared a national energy emergency, is also considering reviving a nuclear plant built after the 1973 oil crisis that was never switched on.
"I hope we learned our lesson," said Alvie Asuncion-Astronomo of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute. The Iran war is "providing a needed push for nuclear".
Africa voices atomic ambitions
Soaring energy prices and power shortages are fuelling public calls for nuclear cooperation across Africa, where more than 20 of the 54 countries have long-term atomic energy plans under way.
With Africa seen as a growth market, nuclear nations — including the US, Russia, China, France and South Korea — are pitching small modular reactors (SMRs) as a solution to energy shortfalls.
These compact units are cheaper than large-scale plants, but projects can still take years. Kenya plans to bring an SMR online in 2034, having started the first phase in 2009.
"Nuclear energy is no longer a distant aspiration for African countries; it is a strategic necessity," said Justus Wabuyabo of Kenya's Nuclear Power and Energy Agency last month.
At a March summit convened by the IAEA, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said Africa will be "one of the most important global markets" for smaller reactors in the years ahead.
SMRs are seen as a solution to the continent's rising electricity demand, weak grids and over-reliance on imported diesel.
South Africa, which has the continent's only existing nuclear plants, wants nuclear to rise from around 5% of its energy mix to 16% by 2040.
Loyiso Tyabashe of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation said SMRs could "fulfill our strategic objective of positioning South Africa at the forefront of advanced nuclear technologies".
US and Russia vie for influence
The energy disruptions come as competition for influence in Africa intensifies between Washington and Moscow.
Russia's Rosatom is building Egypt's first reactor and has cooperation agreements with Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania and Niger, spanning major projects, research centres, uranium processing facilities and training programmes.
While only Kenya and Ghana have joined an American-led modular reactor initiative, Washington is trying to catch up.
The US and South Korea sponsored a nuclear conference in Nairobi last month, where Ryan Taugher of the US State Department said Washington is working with African nations to develop secure civil nuclear reactors rapidly.
Ghana, which aims to begin building a plant in 2027, is in the market for foreign suppliers.
The risks remain
Interest is building, but risks — meltdowns, mismanaged waste and the potential path to nuclear weapons — have not gone away.
Ayumi Fukakusa of advocacy group Friends of the Earth Japan said "nuclear is very risky" and will keep countries reliant on imported fuels such as enriched uranium.
Rex Amancio of the Global Renewables Alliance said governments should stay focused on building out renewables for long-term energy security, given that nuclear sectors take years to develop.
Bronson also warned that nuclear plants are vulnerable during conflicts, citing instances where reactors were targeted during both the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war.
"All of this comes into the mix of how we think about energy security," she said.
"Countries are now weighing those kinds of risks against the other risks — which Asia and Africa are seeing first and foremost — about what happens when gas and oil stops."
