Markets have remained positive, with oil prices edging slightly upward, coupled with gains for global equities ahead of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad on Saturday.
European stocks were mostly up in the opening on Friday, and oil prices were inching upwards amid uncertainty as the ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared fragile and the Strait of Hormuz largely remained closed ahead of talks between the two sides on Saturday.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
Talks between the US and Iran are expected to begin on Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan, aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire in the Iran war, with US Vice President JD Vance set to lead the American delegation.
But ahead of the talks, deadly Israeli strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday raised questions about whether the two-week ceasefire in the Iran war is still intact.
The Islamic Republic also maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains largely closed despite US demands to reopen the waterway critical for global oil and gas transport.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had authorised talks with Lebanon, with negotiations expected in Washington next week.
According to analysts at Deutsche Bank Research, these talks are "significant because Lebanon has been a potential key stumbling block around the ceasefire".
In a note, they added that "hopes for a de-escalation in Lebanon helped ease concerns that the broader ceasefire could fall apart ahead of this weekend’s talks".
How markets are faring
Oil was up modestly on Friday. Brent crude, the international standard, was 0.8% higher at $96.71 per barrel, while benchmark US crude rose 0.4% to $98.60 a barrel.
On oil prices, Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays wrote in a recent research note that "$65-70 a barrel is not coming back," referring to pre-Iran war oil price levels.
The bank predicts that Brent crude could remain at around $85 per barrel on average for this year. "A ceasefire is not a refund," he wrote.
"Ceasefires end wars; they do not undo them."
US inflation data in focus
According to analysts at Deutsche Bank Research, inflation concerns remain highly elevated. Friday's US inflation data for March is therefore significant — it will be the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on 28 February.
Deutsche Bank is expecting "a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March."
If confirmed, "that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022," the analysts added.
The figure would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, "which we haven't seen since early 2024".
European and Asian markets
In Europe, leading stock indices were mostly higher at the open, with Frankfurt's DAX and Paris's CAC each gaining more than 0.5%. London's FTSE 100 was slightly down in early trading. The Euro Stoxx was up 0.7%.
In company news, Stuttgart-based Porsche AG reported a 15% decline in sales for the first three months of 2026, driven by weaker demand in China, and warned that further declines are expected in coming quarters. The share price fell nearly 0.4% shortly after the open.
Earlier, TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, reported that sales jumped more than 45% in March compared with the same month in 2025.
Revenue for the first three months rose 35.1% year on year to NT$1,134.10bn ($35.68bn, approximately €30.6bn). The share price rose 2.3%.
Stock markets in Asia were trading higher on Friday, partly driven by a better-than-expected inflation reading from China.
The country's consumer price index rose 1% in March from a year earlier, below analyst expectations and down from 1.3% in February.
South Korea's Kospi jumped 1.8% to 5,879.71. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.6% to 56,789.58. Shares of Fast Retailing, parent of Japanese clothing brand Uniqlo, surged more than 10% after the group raised its full-year profit outlook.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.7% to 25,919.12, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% to 3,991.14. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%. Taiwan's Taiex rose 1.3% and India's Sensex gained 0.7%.
Bonds, currencies and commodities
Bond markets were pricing in further risks, with yields rising. The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield stood at 3.016% on Friday morning, while the UK 10-year Gilt was up nearly 0.06 percentage points at 4.737%.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.02 percentage points to 4.3%.
Gold fell 0.8% to $4,778 an ounce and silver dropped 1.1% to $75.60 per ounce. The dollar rose to 159.18 Japanese yen from 158.96. The euro was trading at $1.1687, down from $1.1699.