Sheinbaum has seen a bump in popularity as she seeks to protect Mexico against US tariffs. The economic effects of a trade war could nonetheless dent her ratings further down the line.
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Tens of thousands of people packed into Mexico’s City main plaza on Sunday to celebrate with President Claudia Sheinbaum a decision by the US to postpone tariffs on many of the country’s goods.
The crowd clutched large Mexican flags and yelled, “Mexico is to be respected!” as they cheered on Sheinbaum.
“Fortunately, dialogue and respect have prevailed,” she told the crowd.
The celebration comes just days after US President Donald Trump postponed 25% tariffs on many imports from Mexico for a month, saying Sheinbaum had made progress on drug smuggling and illegal immigration.
Sheinbaum had planned to announce retaliatory measures on Sunday, but instead held a mass celebration.
While threats persist, the president said she was optimistic tariffs would not be applied to Mexico and that she would continue to act with a “cool head” in the face of Trump.
Among Sheinbaum's supporters was Roberto González, a 68-year-old computer scientist who raised a sign that read “we are united Mexicans".
“The unity of the country is very important,” González said, adding that is the only way Mexico would be able to “face one of the largest powers in the world".
Also cheering on the president was Mariana Rivera, a 40-year-old social activist who held up a massive Mexican flag as high as her arms allowed.
Despite the lingering threats facing the country, the activist said she was convinced that “the president will overcome everything”.
Analysts say they don’t expect the jubilant ceremony to alleviate the climate of uncertainty that threatens new investments and the Mexican economy. They nonetheless note that it will help Sheinbaum consolidate internal support against Trump, who is setting the pace of bilateral relations.
“This is an event designed more for internal politics,” said political scientist Javier Rosiles Salas, stating that Sheinbaum will seek to use Sunday’s event to strengthen her image.
Rosiles Salas told AP that despite concerns in Mexico about the economic impacts of a tariff war with the United States, the confrontation with Trump has been “very profitable for Claudia Sheinbaum” and has allowed her to achieve popular support of over 60% five months into her term.
The US is Mexico’s main trading partner and destination of more than 80% of Mexican exports.
Although the 62-year-old president appears strong now, it is not clear whether her political support would weaken if the Mexican economy deteriorates because of tensions with the US.
For now, the projections of specialists and rating agencies are not favorable. Most analysts agree that if general tariffs are imposed, Mexico could face a GDP contraction of more than 1%.
A prolonged climate of uncertainty doesn’t favour Mexico, according to Samuel Ortiz Velásquez, professor of the Faculty of Economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
After phone conversations with counterparts in Mexico and Canada, Trump decided last Thursday to pause until 2 April the general tariffs for products that are under a trilateral trade agreement.
In early February, Trump also suspended tariffs after Sheinbaum promised to send 10,000 national guards to the northern border to contain drug trafficking.
Despite the agreements, Trump’s decision on the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from Mexico and Canada, which are scheduled to come into effect on 12 March, remains in limbo.
