Brazil’s re-elected leader now faces a hostile Congress at home and a Trump administration that had bet heavily on his rival.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s narrow victory in Brazil’s presidential run-off on Sunday has ended a run of seven consecutive conservative wins in Latin American presidential elections over the past 18 months.
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The leftist incumbent beat Flávio Bolsonaro by 51.8% to 48.2%. Bolsonaro has said he will challenge the result and seek its annulment, after the Supreme Court extended voting by two hours.
Voters across the region, frustrated by organised crime and economic hardship, have increasingly backed hard-line candidates, from Peru’s Keiko Fujimori to Chile’s José Antonio Kast. Washington has encouraged the trend with endorsements, bailouts and military aid.
“The US is certainly putting its finger on the scale to try to help the more hard-line right-wing elements in the region,” Kenneth Roberts, a professor of government at Cornell University, told the Associated Press.
Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, would have been the biggest prize. Bolsonaro had pledged to join a US-led anti-cartel coalition and campaigned on his closeness to Trump.
Instead, Washington’s pressure may have helped Lula. The steep tariffs Trump imposed on Brazilian goods over the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro for a coup plot triggered a nationalist backlash, which Lula channelled into the slogan “Brazil belongs to Brazilians”.
“To the extent that the regional superpower becomes a threat to Brazil’s democratic institutions, defending Brazilian national sovereignty also becomes a form of defending Brazilian democracy,” Roberts said.
'Brazil has leverage'
Lula has refused to join the US-led Shield of the Americas coalition. “We don’t accept being treated like children,” he said in May, after Washington designated Brazil’s two largest gangs as terrorist organisations.
Brazil also holds valuable cards: the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves and around 90% of global niobium output, both vital to defence industries.
"Brazil has leverage," said Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “With Lula, the US is on shakier ground.”
Yet analysts warn against reading too much into one result. Conservatives strengthened their grip on Brazil’s Congress this month, leaving Lula struggling to pass reforms.
“Lula has his hands tied,” said Guilherme Casarões of Florida International University.
A setback for Trump
The defeat of a Trump-backed candidate comes just over a week before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
A CNN poll put Trump’s approval rating at a record low of 32%. An NBC News/Telemundo survey found 68% of Latino voters disapprove of his foreign policy, a significant shift among a group that helped return him to power in 2024.
Reaction split along party lines. Donald Trump Jr attacked the extension of voting hours, while Democratic congressman Ro Khanna urged the president to respect the result.
Both governments still have reasons to cooperate, with Washington seeking rare earths and Lula wanting tariff relief.
"Lula is pragmatic enough to work out some kind of modus operandi with the Trump administration," said Will Freeman of the Council on Foreign Relations, adding that the Bolsonaros’ allies in Washington were likely to lose influence after the family’s second straight defeat.