A ‘Godzilla’ El Niño is still intensifying in the Pacific. When will we see the weather phenomenon peak – and when will it come to an end?
2026 will go down in history for what could become the largest El Niño in living memory, as the world scrambles to prepare for an onslaught of extreme weather.
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The natural weather phenomenon (Spanish for ‘the boy’) occurs irregularly – roughly every two to seven years – when sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. Experts first started warning that a strong El Niño could form at the beginning of this year, supported by large amounts of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of low-level trade winds.
In the first week of June, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that El Niño conditions were officially underway. Towards the end of summer, experts warned that the “unprecedented” El Niño could become the largest event since the 19th century – gaining the nickname of a ‘Godzilla’ or ‘Super’ El Niño.
Is El Niño getting stronger – and what are the impacts?
According to the WMO, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October, November and December.
Sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, are measured by the widely used Niño 3.4 index. This increased markedly from an average +1.6 °C above normal in June 2026 to +2.5 °C above normal in August.
For October-November-December, the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7°C. This would be the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016.
Previous El Niño events have contributed towards record-breaking heat, fuelling long-standing droughts, flash floods and deadly wildfires across the globe.
El Niño’s weather impacts are mainly felt in the tropics, but Europe can experience milder, wetter winters. An El Niño peak can also weaken the polar vortex, increasing the likelihood of a cold snap.
South America, the southern US, East Africa and Central Asia have all experienced heightened flood risks during previous El Niño events – while droughts and wildfire risks rise across large parts of Australia, northern parts of South America and in certain Asian countries such as Indonesia.
Extreme weather overseas will still have a knock-on effect for Europe. The IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands has been working in areas that are directly impacted by El Niño and warn that many staple foods that Europe imports could be at risk.
For example, in Nicaragua, crops such as maize and beans may fail in already fragile areas, leading to food insecurity and income loss in the country. A lack of rain and low flows in rivers also mean that irrigated crops in Colombia, Northeast Brazil and India will face severe restrictions or will need to rely more on groundwater, potentially causing overexploitation in the area – and export shortages.
A timeline of El Niño: When will it peak and end?
The WMO’s latest statement says that El Niño is forecast to peak in December, and will continue into next year.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” warns WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950.”
The almost-certain figure isn’t from one climate model. The WMO has coordinated ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data from 13 national and international centres to make the prediction.
El Niño isn’t expected to end until spring 2027, but its impacts will likely stretch further. It’s why experts warn that next year could become the hottest on record.
El Niño clashes with climate change
Most El Niño events increase global average temperatures by around 0.2°C. While this is enough to trigger extreme weather conditions across the Global South, it is a fraction of the additional warming caused by climate change.
Human-caused global warming from the burning of fossil fuels has pushed global average surface temperatures 1.3°C to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. It is this that paved the way for Europe’s scorching summer, long-standing drought and deadly wildfires.
Nowadays, El Niño’s impacts are compounded by an already warming world – one that has a much stronger influence on the extreme weather we’re witnessing. 2025, for example, was the third warmest year on record – hotter than the El Niño year of 2016 – despite the naturally-forming cool drag of El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña.
Recent research suggests that climate change is turbocharging El Niño events too, by making them 36 per cent stronger than before the industrial era.
“El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface – which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured (as with 2024),” Saulo told the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok in October.
“The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release.”
