Alexander Stubb, who likely gained 27.3%, will now face runner-up Pekka Haavisto, who likely gained 25.8%, in a runoff next month.
ADVERTISEMENTFinnish public broadcaster YLE also projected that Parliamentary Speaker Jussi Halla-aho came in third place with 18.6%.
The projected result will push the race into a runoff on Feb. 11 between Stubb and Haavisto, because none of the candidates received more than half of the votes.
YLE’s prediction, highly accurate in previous elections, is a mathematical model calculated on the basis of advance votes and a certain number of Sunday’s votes under official data provided by the Legal Register Centre. Exit polls aren't generally used in Finland.
Stubb, 55, and Haavisto, 65, were the main contenders in the election. About 4.5 million eligible voters picked a successor out of nine candidates to hugely popular President Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term expires in March. He wasn’t eligible for re-election.
The initial voter turnout was calculated to be 74.9%.
Stubb represents the conservative National Coalition Party and headed the Finnish government in 2014-2015, while veteran politician Haavisto, an ex-U.N. diplomat and Green League member, is running for the post for the third time as an independent candidate.
Unlike in most European countries, the president of Finland holds executive power in formulating foreign and security policy, particularly when dealing with countries outside the European Union like the United States, Russia and China.
The president also acts as the supreme commander of the Finnish military, a particularly important duty in Europe’s current security environment.
The main themes of the election were foreign and security policy issues like Finland’s recent membership in NATO, future policies toward Russia, enhancing security cooperation with the United States and the need to continue helping Ukraine both militarily and with humanitarian assistance.
Finland’s new head of state will start a six-year term in March in a markedly different geopolitical and security situation in Europe than did incumbent Niinistö after the 2018 election.
Abandoning decades of military nonalignment in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland became NATO’s 31st member in April, much to the annoyance of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, which shares a 1,340-kilometre border with the Nordic nation.
NATO membership, which has made Finland the Western military alliance’s front-line country toward Russia, and the war raging in Ukraine a mere 1,000 kilometres away from Finland’s border have boosted the president’s status as a security policy leader.
As foreign minister, Haavisto signed Finland’s historic accession treaty to NATO last year and played a key role in the membership process along with Niinistö and former Prime Minister Sanna Marin.
Finland's western neighbour Sweden is set to join NATO in the near future as the final holdout, Hungary, is expected to ratify Stockholm's bid by the end of February.