Turkey opinion poll tracker: Erdoğan vs Kılıçdaroğlu

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), presidential candidate of the opposition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (right)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left), presidential candidate of the opposition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (right) Copyright AP Photo
Copyright AP Photo
By Tuba Altunkaya
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Follow our opinion polls tracking election success chances of the main Turkish presidential candidates.

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Recent opinion polls in Turkey point to a neck-and-neck race and even possible power change in the coming up elections. Turkish voters will cast their votes on 14 May to decide on their next president and the members of the parliament. The race is said to be one of the most significant in recent history.

There are three alliances running in the elections projected to pass the 7 % threshold: The People's Alliance led by current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Nation Alliance formed of six opposition parties and the Labour and Freedom Alliance.

People's Alliance is currently formed of four parties: the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Great Unity Party (BBP), and New Welfare Party (YRP). 

Their presidential candidate is Erdoğan, the longest-serving leader in the country's history. Free Cause Party (HUDA-PAR) also announced its support for him without joining the alliance.

The main opposition bloc's Nation Alliance, on the other hand, is made up of six parties: Republican People's Party (CHP), Good Party (İYİ), Felicity Party (SP), Future Party (GP), Democrat Party (DP) and Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA). Dubbed "The Table of Six", the opposition bloc backs CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as their presidential candidate.

However, in the ballot paper voters will only see CHP and İYİ forming the Nation Alliance as the other party candidates will be participating in the race under these two parties' electoral lists.

According to the latest opinion polls conducted by 11 different companies, AKP is leading the race with over 32 % of the votes, followed by the CHP projected to win around 27.6 %. 

The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is in third place with 10.7 %. The party facing a possible closure is running under the Green Left Party list, which is a member of the Labour and Freedom Alliance. 

Despite running for first place and having four parties backing, the ruling AKP is losing the majority in the parliament, surveys suggest.

Looking at the overall votes of the alliances, Erdoğan's People's Alliance is set to gain around 40 %, Nation Alliance is predicted to have 38 %, and Labour and Freedom Alliance's projected vote proportion is around 11 %.

The Supreme Election Council’s list shows that 26 parties will field candidates in the parliamentary elections.

Presidential elections

Currently, four names have reached 100,000 signatures required for nomination as a presidential candidate, although there is no doubt that the race is Erdoğan vs Kılıçdaroğlu.

At the beginning of March, the gap between the rivals was around 5 to 10 %. 

In April, five out of six different surveys suggested possible seat change at the presidential palace with Kılıçdaroğlu leading the race with 46.2 % of voters' support on average whereas the current president’s support stands at 42.6 % on average. 

If no single candidate secures more than 50 % of votes in the first time round, a run-off between the top two rivals will be held on 28 May.

According to all polls, Turkish voters will head to the ballot box once again to make a choice between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu as their new leader.

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