Russian army stays on the defensive likely because of munition shortage

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By Sasha Vakulina
Ukrainian military's Grad multiple rocket launcher fires rockets at Russian positions in the frontline near Bakhmut, Ukraine.
Ukrainian military's Grad multiple rocket launcher fires rockets at Russian positions in the frontline near Bakhmut, Ukraine.   -   Copyright  Libkos/Copyright 2022 The AP. All rights reserved.

Russian forces continued to conduct defensive measures, build fortifications, and move personnel on the east bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, says the Institute for the Study of war.

The UK defence ministry adds that Russia’s shortage of munitions is likely one of the main factors currently limiting Russia’s potential to restart effective, large-scale offensive ground operations.

Russia’s withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River last month has provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with opportunities to strike additional Russian logistics nodes and lines of communication.

This threat has highly likely prompted Russian logisticians to relocate supply nodes, including rail transfer points, further south and east.

In Zaporizhzhia, Russian military movements may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian force concentrations and logistics.

The potential withdrawal from Polohy is particularly notable as the settlement lies at a critical road junction, and Russian forces would likely have a harder time defending Tokmak from potential Ukrainian operations without control of that junction.

The withdrawal from a critical position may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend the entire frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region and are prioritizing where to concentrate forces. It is just as likely that Russian forces are reorienting their grouping in the Zaporizhzhia region and may move different personnel back into these settlements.

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