U.S. President Donald Trump finds himself under pressure as he considers de-certifying the international nuclear deal with Iran, a move that would ignore warnings from inside and outside his administration that to do so would risk isolating the U.S.
Trump is expected to unveil a broad strategy on challenging Iran this Friday.
If Trump did de-certify the nuclear deal, Congress would then decide whether to re-impose sanctions.
This would increase the risk of confrontation with the Europeans, says Pierre Vimont, a former French diplomat.
The Europeans had been clear that they see Iran in compliance with the 2015 agreement, he says, and that they don’t see any reasons to re-impose sanctions against Iran.
European officials have categorically ruled out renegotiating the deal, but so far Trump seems unfazed by the traditional U.S. allies.
“Refusing to certify the deal would put the U.S. credibility on the line”, says Vimont. “And the U.S. ennemies and competitors in the region would have a field day and would increase their influence, especially Russia. All this should lead Trump to think twice.”
But some say they share Trump’s concerns over Iran’s destabilizing influence in the Middle East. Analysts like Daniel Schwammenthal.
“We see iran continuously researching and testing ballistic missile. You need ballistic missile hugely in military purposes for nucelar war heads. Whatever the virtues are of the deal, we know that in 8 to 13 years from now, most of the important restrictions would fall away and the Iranian regime will basically have a threshhold nuclear capability, legitimised by the international community.”
Our correspondent Nima Ghadakpour says: “The fight against the proliferation of nuclear arms is deadlocked, as today’s crises in North Korea and Iran show.
Facing this predicament are two sides, those who advocate confrontation like Trump and those who favor diplomacy, like the European Union.”