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Cautious economic forecasts in a time of uncertainty

Cautious economic forecasts in a time of uncertainty
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Business Line looks at economic forecasts for the world and for Europe, seeing how forecasters are reexamining their perspectives and perceptions.

Despite huge changes to the political landscape from the Brexit vote in the UK and Donald Trump’s election in the US, the International Monetary Fund didn’t change its global forecast in its latest world economic outlook

For both those momentous events traditional opinion polling organisations were completely wrongfooted. And it has been the same story with recent economic forecasts. The IMF had to admit that its initial Brexit vote assessment for the UK had been too pessimistic.

The European Commission has also just released a new economic forecast for the region.

The main factors for Brussels are also Brexit and Donald Trump. And like the IMF, the Commission is worried about the upcoming elections in Europe.

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