About six in 10 adults worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050, according to new projections.
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People are significantly more likely to be overweight or obese compared with three decades ago – and the growing crisis poses an “unparalleled threat” to health and wellbeing, new research suggests.
By 2050, 60 per cent of adults and 31 per cent of children and young people worldwide are expected to be overweight or obese, representing 3.8 billion adults and 746 million youths, according to the pair of studies published in The Lancet medical journal.
That’s up from 731 million adults and 198 million young people in 1990, as recent generations gain more weight faster and earlier in life.
In high-income countries, for example, about 7 per cent of men born in the 1960s were obese by the age of 25. That share rose to 16 per cent for men born in the 1990s, and is expected to reach 25 per cent for those born in 2015, the report found.
The surging obesity epidemic raises the risk of type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and some types of cancer for millions of people across the globe.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” Emmanuela Gakidou, one of the study’s authors and a co-founder of the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), said in a statement.
The global research teams categorised adults as being 25 or older, and children and young people as those aged 5 to 24.
The analyses cover nearly every country, offering some of the most comprehensive obesity forecasting to date.
They found that while some countries are seeing bigger shifts than others, obesity is increasingly affecting every corner of the world.
Adult obesity rates tied to health complications
In 2021, more than half of overweight or obese adults were from just eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the US (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).
In the coming decades, population growth in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will drive the major increases in obesity there, the report found. Among high-income countries, the highest obesity rates are projected in the United States, Chile, and Argentina.
Greece will be the most obese high-income European country in 2050, with rates of 48 per cent among women and 41 per cent among men, the analysis shows.
The rise in health complications tied to obesity is already taking a toll on life expectancy and healthy ageing in some European countries, the US, and Australia, the Lancet researchers said.
By 2050, around one in four obese adults worldwide will be 65 or older, which could further strain healthcare systems, especially in lower-income countries, they added.
“While we may be making some progress in some places in Europe and in North America, we are seeing quite the opposite trajectory in middle-income countries and low-income countries,” Johanna Ralston, chief executive of the World Obesity Federation, told Euronews Health.
Her group published a separate analysis that shows globally, just 7 per cent of countries’ health systems are prepared to tackle the increase in obesity-related health problems.
It said obesity already causes 1.6 million premature deaths every year from conditions like diabetes, cancer, heart disease, and stroke.
Young people increasingly suffering from weight issues
The Lancet study authors separated young people into two groups: children and young teenagers (ages 5 to 14), and older teens and young adults (ages 15 to 24).
Young people are more likely to be overweight than obese in 2050. Still, obesity figures are expected to climb by 121 per cent in the coming decades, the study found.
There will also be big differences by region, with rapid increases in obesity expected in North Africa and the Middle East as well as Latin America and the Caribbean. Countries like the US and China, which have large populations, will also see notable upticks.
In wealthy countries, Chile will see the highest obesity rates among children ages 5 to 14, while the US will have the highest prevalence among those 15 to 24.
Among high-income European countries, Greece will have the highest obesity rates for boys and young men by 2050. San Marino will have the highest rate for girls ages 5 to 14 while Greenland will come out on top for those ages 15 to 24.
The shift from overweight to obese is expected to be slower in some regions, including many European countries – presenting an opportunity to reduce child obesity in these areas, the researchers said.
“If we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” Dr Jessica Kerr, one of the study’s authors and a researcher at the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, said in a statement.
Policy efforts to curb obesity
Notably, the study measured obesity using body mass index (BMI), which a global expert panel recently recommended replacing with other, more precise measures of weight distribution and its impact on health.
It also did not take into account the role that blockbuster weight loss drugs known as GLP-1 receptor agonists could play in reshaping the trajectory of the obesity crisis.
Ralston cautioned that while these medicines could be “transformative therapies,” they won’t be enough to halt the obesity epidemic’s trajectory without policy changes that create healthier food systems and communities that support exercise.
The World Obesity Federation has pushed for food labelling and taxation and health system improvements. But so far, the group said, very few countries are taking what it calls a “whole-of-society” approach.
“We can’t just treat our way out of it. We can’t just prevent our way out of it. We have to do multiple things together,” Ralston said.
